Consensus PnL $874K · win rate 74% (10176–3490, n=13666) · PM monthly #3 · holds 540 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$873.6K
Record
10176W / 3490L
Win Rate
74.0%
of 13666 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#624
Source
PM monthly #3
Record (90 d)
3172/4942 · 64%
Trades
3,563
Markets
19,994
Volume
$5.8M
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Top consensus positions
540 in listed consensus markets · 336 of 540 on the consensus side (62%)- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $8.4K · now 77¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (71% of 127)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $6.2K · now 77¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (76% of 161)
- Will xAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $5.8K · now 26¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 53)
- Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Yes $5.2K · now 76¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (87% of 15)
- Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?Yes $2.9K · now 24¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (75% of 16)
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No $2.7K · now 96¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (22% of 9)
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No $1.8K · now 63¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (43% of 15)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes $1.6K · now 19¢ · in at 27¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
4,617 settled consensus markets · held side won 62% at an average entry of 53¢- Crypto
+46 pts
side won 85% of 99 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +75%
- Soccer
+16 pts
side won 66% of 1097 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +27%
- NBA
+15 pts
side won 74% of 130 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +19%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 78% of 36 at an average 79¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 39%(won 20% of 1795)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 54% of 339)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 73% of 420)
- 70¢ and up: 45%(won 98% of 2063)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.