Will Türkiye vs. Belgium end in a draw?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 78¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.0K
$9.68
76.3¢ → 77.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 76.8¢ | $292.07 | $294.88 | +$2.82 | 48% 917-990 (1907) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 76¢ | $262.09 | $265.54 | +$3.45 | 60% 3442-2336 (5778) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 76¢ | $261.96 | $265.4 | +$3.45 | 16% 66-348 (414) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $91.33 | $91.33 | -$0 | 50% 1421-1422 (2843) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $50.1 | $51.09 | +$0.99 | 53% 335-299 (634) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $47.15 | $46.13 | -$1.02 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
Invested
$292.07
Value
$294.88
PnL
+$2.82
Record
48%
917-990 (1907)
Invested
$262.09
Value
$265.54
PnL
+$3.45
Record
60%
3442-2336 (5778)
Invested
$261.96
Value
$265.4
PnL
+$3.45
Record
16%
66-348 (414)
Invested
$91.33
Value
$91.33
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
1421-1422 (2843)
Invested
$50.1
Value
$51.09
PnL
+$0.99
Record
53%
335-299 (634)
Invested
$47.15
Value
$46.13
PnL
-$1.02
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.