Consensus PnL $36K · win rate 50% (103–101, n=204) · PM monthly #533 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$36.4K
Record
103W / 101L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 204 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1765
Source
PM monthly #533
Trades
93
Markets
233
Volume
$371.5K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?No $503 · now 28¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
114 settled consensus markets · held side won 89% at an average entry of 58¢- Esports
+36 pts
side won 94% of 98 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +37%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 58% of 12 at an average 59¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +11%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 22% of 9)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 83% of 24)
- 50–70¢: 42%(won 96% of 48)
- 70¢ and up: 29%(won 100% of 33)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.