Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

18 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (69%) · Yes at 71¢ · $332K held · ends Dec 10

Yes71¢No29¢Ends Thu, Dec 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$331.9K

Combined PnL

$-5.1K

Smart Money Entry

82.6¢ → 70.5¢

-15% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 71%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 26 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$84.1K

Total Shares280,139

Combined PnL+$36.4K

Yes18 traders

Total Value$247.6K

Total Shares351,002

Combined PnL$-41.5K

No — 31%Yes — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 58% · 12

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 65% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
foodenjoyerCTR	Noavg 15.9¢	$45.8K	$76.4K	+$34.4K	49% 47-49 (96)
SI simpleman	Yesavg 83.9¢	$72.3K	$61.3K	$-11.0K	47% 456-520 (976)
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul	Yesavg 81.2¢	$65.0K	$56.4K	$-8.6K	63% 353-204 (557)
TH TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard	Yesavg 87.9¢	$61.5K	$49.4K	$-12.1K	63% 145-84 (229)
Roflan-ludoman	Yesavg 78.2¢	$31.0K	$26.2K	$-2.7K	62% 649-396 (1045)
balthazar	Yesavg 78.5¢	$23.9K	$21.5K	$-2.4K	61% 21345-13641 (34986)
FO forgetfuldory	Yesavg 85.3¢	$11.6K	$9.2K	$-1.9K	— 5-5 (10)
StupidMonkeyyy	Yesavg 78.9¢	$8.0K	$7.1K	-$889.15	50% 147-145 (292)
QM QMG-CORE	Yesavg 79.6¢	$7.8K	$7.1K	-$741.23	77% 1408-416 (1824)
HorribleWorkCTR	Noavg 21.2¢	$3.5K	$4.7K	+$1.2K	60% 465-309 (774)
GA gaven-willwin	Yesavg 71¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	-$25	68% 19-9 (28)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 84.5¢	$2.9K	$2.3K	-$445.69	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
The-JokerCTR	Noavg 19.3¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$559.5	68% 1507-701 (2208)
ScottyNooo	Yesavg 86.6¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$355.24	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
debased	Yesavg 81.9¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$114.97	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Noavg 27.5¢	$549.99	$599.99	+$40.01	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR	Noavg 23¢	$392.18	$511.53	+$110.83	52% 102-94 (196)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73	Yesavg 76¢	$444.12	$419.35	-$24.76	39% 175-269 (444)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 79.3¢	$327.18	$300.82	-$26.36	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
LI lissartterARB<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$270.91	$272.53	+$1.63	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 78¢	$186.58	$168.56	-$2.29
└ No leg	Noavg 23.4¢	$80.95	$103.97	+$3.92
IM ImbleciarCTR	Noavg 18¢	$119.49	$199.16	+$73.02	73% 22-8 (30)
GH ghorrock	Yesavg 76.2¢	$152.96	$144.96	-$8	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
VO Volodyabandit<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$100	$99.3	-$0.7	76% 275-86 (361)
BlondBeast<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$41	$35.25	-$5.75	69% 780-347 (1127)
CD CDAP1<$100	Yesavg 74¢	$24.42	$23.26	-$1.16	30% 11-26 (37)

foodenjoyerCTR

Invested

$45,794.39

Value

$76.4K

PnL

+$34.4K

Record

49%

47-49 (96)

simpleman

Yes

Invested

$72,333.22

Value

$61.3K

PnL

$-11.0K

Record

47%

456-520 (976)

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

Yes

Invested

$64,999.27

Value

$56.4K

PnL

$-8.6K

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard

Yes

Invested

$61,500

Value

$49.4K

PnL

$-12.1K

Record

63%

145-84 (229)

Roflan-ludoman

Yes

Invested

$30,972.3

Value

$26.2K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

62%

649-396 (1045)

balthazar

Yes

Invested

$23,930.96

Value

$21.5K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

61%

21345-13641 (34986)

forgetfuldory

Yes

Invested

$11,575.6

Value

$9.2K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

—

5-5 (10)

StupidMonkeyyy

Yes

Invested

$7,969

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$889.15

Record

50%

147-145 (292)

QMG-CORE

Yes

Invested

$7,792.17

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$741.23

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

HorribleWorkCTR

Invested

$3,533.9

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

60%

465-309 (774)

gaven-willwin

Yes

Invested

$3,550

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$25

Record

68%

19-9 (28)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$2,913.03

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$445.69

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

The-JokerCTR

Invested

$1,058.2

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$559.5

Record

68%

1507-701 (2208)

ScottyNooo

Yes

Invested

$1,922.32

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$355.24

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

debased

Yes

Invested

$1,209.71

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$114.97

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Invested

$549.99

Value

$599.99

PnL

+$40.01

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR

Invested

$392.18

Value

$511.53

PnL

+$110.83

Record

52%

102-94 (196)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Yes

Invested

$444.12

Value

$419.35

PnL

-$24.76

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$327.18

Value

$300.82

PnL

-$26.36

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

lissartterARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$270.91

Value

$272.53

PnL

+$1.63

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Both legs:

Yes$186.5878¢-$2.29

No$80.9523.4¢+$3.92

ImbleciarCTR

Invested

$119.49

Value

$199.16

PnL

+$73.02

Record

73%

22-8 (30)

ghorrock

Yes

Invested

$152.96

Value

$144.96

PnL

-$8

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

Volodyabandit<$100

Yes

Invested

$100

Value

$99.3

PnL

-$0.7

Record

76%

275-86 (361)

BlondBeast<$100

Yes

Invested

$41

Value

$35.25

PnL

-$5.75

Record

69%

780-347 (1127)

CDAP1<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.42

Value

$23.26

PnL

-$1.16

Record

30%

11-26 (37)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 71%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 26 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 58% · 12

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 65% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.