Consensus PnL $21K · win rate 52% (981–896, n=1877) · PM monthly #719 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$20.6K
Record
981W / 896L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 1877 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1616
Source
PM monthly #719
Trades
125
Markets
1,906
Volume
$4.6M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?No $5.3K · now 54¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (76% of 32)
Specialties
940 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 57¢- MLB
+49 pts
side won 99% of 256 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +49%
- Other Sports
+48 pts
side won 100% of 75 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +50%
- Soccer
+46 pts
side won 100% of 82 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +49%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 96% of 28)
- 30–50¢: 32%(won 100% of 303)
- 50–70¢: 41%(won 99% of 388)
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 100% of 221)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.