Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?

22 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold No (76%) · No at 54¢ · $421K held · ended Oct 10

Yes46¢No54¢Ended Sat, Oct 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 76%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$421.0K

Combined PnL

$10.6K

Smart Money Entry

61.6¢ → 54¢

-12% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 54%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

22 of 29 top traders (76%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$228.6K

Total Shares466,570

Combined PnL+$35.2K

No22 traders

Total Value$175.1K

Total Shares324,162

Combined PnL$-24.6K

Yes — 24%No — 76%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

504h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

15 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

76% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 20

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 27

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO totoro3miyazakiCTR	Yesavg 38.6¢	$157.6K	$200.0K	+$30.1K	55% 24-20 (44)
0X 0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814	Noavg 61.6¢	$56.2K	$49.3K	$-6.9K	47% 209-240 (449)
KY Kyn008	Noavg 62¢	$50.1K	$43.6K	$-6.5K	49% 258-268 (526)
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Yesavg 37¢	$17.6K	$23.3K	+$4.3K	49% 167-175 (342)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 61¢	$18.9K	$16.7K	$-2.2K	50% 2544-2531 (5075)
MO mooseborzoii	Noavg 61.2¢	$16.9K	$14.9K	$-2.0K	50% 1188-1183 (2371)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 60.8¢	$16.5K	$14.6K	$-1.8K	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 61.4¢	$8.7K	$8.5K	-$195.09	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ No leg	Noavg 61.4¢	$6.0K	$5.2K	-$719.22
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.5¢	$2.7K	$3.2K	+$524.13
FO forecastication4	Noavg 61¢	$9.2K	$8.1K	$-1.1K	49% 1199-1227 (2426)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 61.3¢	$8.3K	$8.1K	-$341.47	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
└ No leg	Noavg 61.3¢	$6.4K	$5.7K	-$714.24
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$372.77
norrisfan	Noavg 61¢	$6.7K	$6.0K	-$773.15	42% 480-668 (1148)
0X 0x0x23kjookhaiuohduoayh8c9	Noavg 61¢	$6.0K	$5.3K	-$688.52	52% 978-894 (1872)
PL pltrkr111	Noavg 61¢	$5.0K	$4.4K	-$532.79	54% 732-617 (1349)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 37.9¢	$3.1K	$3.7K	+$562.51	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
WO Woohx	Noavg 63¢	$3.8K	$3.2K	-$540	56% 113-88 (201)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Noavg 63¢	$443.56	$2.4K	-$368.36	73% 3600-1329 (4929)
MI MinevaJ	Noavg 64¢	$2.8K	$2.3K	-$430.24	57% 1048-784 (1832)
FO forrestgumperCTR	Yesavg 38.1¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$234.66	48% 621-680 (1301)
SP spyGoodLuck77	Noavg 69¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$326.08	63% 1792-1071 (2863)
PA pauleta23	Noavg 69¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$305.84	67% 23466-11821 (35287)
LE leegunnerARB<$100	Yesavg 39.9¢	$1.5K	$733.55	+$370.68	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.9¢	$367.82	$423.52	+$274.13
└ No leg	Noavg 37.7¢	$216.35	$310.03	+$96.55
NO Notradecopy	Noavg 61¢	$500	$442.62	-$57.38	49% 3939-4125 (8064)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Noavg 61¢	$500	$442.62	-$57.38	51% 3950-3850 (7800)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 60.8¢	$74.53	$313.49	-$30.38	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 61.4¢	$343.99	$302.72	-$38.47	52% 13929-12704 (26633)

totoro3miyazakiCTR

Yes

Invested

$157,644.05

Value

$200.0K

PnL

+$30.1K

Record

55%

24-20 (44)

0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814

Invested

$56,191.12

Value

$49.3K

PnL

$-6.9K

Record

47%

209-240 (449)

Kyn008

Invested

$50,092.42

Value

$43.6K

PnL

$-6.5K

Record

49%

258-268 (526)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Yes

Invested

$17,565.69

Value

$23.3K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

49%

167-175 (342)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$18,865.13

Value

$16.7K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

50%

2544-2531 (5075)

mooseborzoii

Invested

$16,915.97

Value

$14.9K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

50%

1188-1183 (2371)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$16,459.17

Value

$14.6K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$8,654.67

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$195.09

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

No$5,963.1261.4¢-$719.22

Yes$2,690.9338.5¢+$524.13

forecastication4

Invested

$9,150

Value

$8.1K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

49%

1199-1227 (2426)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$8,309.94

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$341.47

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

Both legs:

No$6,421.2261.3¢-$714.24

Yes$1,888.7238¢+$372.77

norrisfan

Invested

$6,737.46

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$773.15

Record

42%

480-668 (1148)

0x0x23kjookhaiuohduoayh8c9

Invested

$5,999.99

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$688.52

Record

52%

978-894 (1872)

pltrkr111

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$532.79

Record

54%

732-617 (1349)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,074.61

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$562.51

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

Woohx

Invested

$3,780

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$540

Record

56%

113-88 (201)

JAMJAMJAM4

Invested

$443.56

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$368.36

Record

73%

3600-1329 (4929)

MinevaJ

Invested

$2,753.54

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$430.24

Record

57%

1048-784 (1832)

forrestgumperCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,123.21

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$234.66

Record

48%

621-680 (1301)

spyGoodLuck77

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$326.08

Record

63%

1792-1071 (2863)

pauleta23

Invested

$1,407.27

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$305.84

Record

67%

23466-11821 (35287)

leegunnerARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,476.49

Value

$733.55

PnL

+$370.68

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

Both legs:

Yes$367.8239.9¢+$274.13

No$216.3537.7¢+$96.55

Notradecopy

Invested

$500

Value

$442.62

PnL

-$57.38

Record

49%

3939-4125 (8064)

GamblingAddict12345

Invested

$500

Value

$442.62

PnL

-$57.38

Record

51%

3950-3850 (7800)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$74.53

Value

$313.49

PnL

-$30.38

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$343.99

Value

$302.72

PnL

-$38.47

Record

52%

13929-12704 (26633)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 54%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

22 of 29 top traders (76%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

504h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

15 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

76% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 20

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 27

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.