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27
Consensus PnL $2.6K · win rate 63% (5–3, n=8) · was PM monthly #902 · holds 2 consensus positions
0x279586b4...5043acd0Polymarket
⚖️Arb🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$2.6K
Record
5W / 3L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 8 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1051
Source
PM monthly #902
Trades
27
Markets
36
Volume
$392.0K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $2.6K · now 71¢ · in at 25¢with the consensus (85% of 29)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $122 · now 2¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
13 settled consensus markets · held side won 85% at an average entry of 68¢- Economy
+16 pts
side won 85% of 13 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +4%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 23%(won 33% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 100% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 62%(won 100% of 8)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.