Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?

6 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 98¢ · $82K held · ends Dec 9

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Dec 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$82.4K

Combined PnL

$-8.2K

Smart Money Entry

97.6¢ → 98.4¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 18 top traders (33%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$77.3K

Total Shares78,553

Combined PnL+$668.44

Yes12 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares317,990

Combined PnL$-8.9K

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

728h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 8

Diverging

sharpNo 71% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chriszyy3	Noavg 97¢	$42.9K	$43.5K	+$643.01	94% 242-16 (258)
PA pako	Noavg 98.4¢	$29.5K	$29.5K	+$15	65% 250-132 (382)
betwickCTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$5.1K	$3.6K	$-1.6K	55% 353-292 (645)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 97.4¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$7	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 98.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0.94	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
QM QMG-SCALAR	Noavg 97.7¢	$980.5	$984	+$3.5	75% 116-39 (155)
LI lissartterCTR	Yes	$476.25	$476.25	$-5.5K	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
TBill1CTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$300	$320	+$10	45% 154-188 (342)
GA gaven-willwinCTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$253.37	$245.46	-$7.91	68% 19-9 (28)
0X 0x279586b44E055dfE58BD21Fff9D67A675043Acd0-1763372677832CTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$103.68	$118.29	-$910.43	20% 4-16 (20)
FO forgetfuldory	Noavg 98.3¢	$102.39	$101.33	-$1.01	— 5-5 (10)
AV AvamaxCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$151.96	$100.11	-$51.85	81% 421-101 (522)
SI simplemanCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$135	$79.4	-$58.07	47% 456-520 (976)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$60	$74.67	-$421.05	56% 973-770 (1743)
CunglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$46.55	$41.37	-$6.46	63% 672-398 (1070)
12 123987456CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$324.76	$25.17	-$299.59	45% 1906-2351 (4257)
ME melonmanmCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$18.1	$16	-$2.6	65% 527-282 (809)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$26.94	$14.6	-$12.76	39% 175-269 (444)

chriszyy3

Invested

$42,874.39

Value

$43.5K

PnL

+$643.01

Record

94%

242-16 (258)

pako

Invested

$29,519.99

Value

$29.5K

PnL

+$15

Record

65%

250-132 (382)

betwickCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,079.52

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

55%

353-292 (645)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$1,961.01

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$7

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,229.36

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0.94

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

QMG-SCALAR

Invested

$980.5

Value

$984

PnL

+$3.5

Record

75%

116-39 (155)

lissartterCTR

Yes

Invested

$476.25

Value

$476.25

PnL

$-5.5K

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

TBill1CTR

Yes

Invested

$300

Value

$320

PnL

+$10

Record

45%

154-188 (342)

gaven-willwinCTR

Yes

Invested

$253.37

Value

$245.46

PnL

-$7.91

Record

68%

19-9 (28)

0x279586b44E055dfE58BD21Fff9D67A675043Acd0-1763372677832CTR

Yes

Invested

$103.68

Value

$118.29

PnL

-$910.43

Record

20%

4-16 (20)

forgetfuldory

Invested

$102.39

Value

$101.33

PnL

-$1.01

Record

—

5-5 (10)

AvamaxCTR

Yes

Invested

$151.96

Value

$100.11

PnL

-$51.85

Record

81%

421-101 (522)

simplemanCTR

Yes

Invested

$135

Value

$79.4

PnL

-$58.07

Record

47%

456-520 (976)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$60

Value

$74.67

PnL

-$421.05

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

CunglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.55

Value

$41.37

PnL

-$6.46

Record

63%

672-398 (1070)

123987456CTR

Yes

Invested

$324.76

Value

$25.17

PnL

-$299.59

Record

45%

1906-2351 (4257)

melonmanmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.1

Value

$16

PnL

-$2.6

Record

65%

527-282 (809)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.94

Value

$14.6

PnL

-$12.76

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 18 top traders (33%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

728h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 8

Diverging

sharpNo 71% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.62

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.