Economy: what top Polymarket traders hold
Rates, inflation, jobs and the other macro numbers. These are the Economy markets on Polymarket in which at least five of the top traders we track hold a position, with the side most of them hold (the consensus), what share of them hold it and the market's own price for that side.
A consensus is a head count of who holds what, not a probability, and following it did not pay on average in our backtests — see how it works.
- Live consensus markets
- 54
- Recently settled, consensus right
- 4 of 11
- Prices as of
- Nov 1, 14:41 UTC
Live Economy consensus markets (54)
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Traders hold Yes 74%26 of 35 tradersMarket price 97¢$1.1M held
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Traders hold Yes 69%20 of 31 tradersMarket price 28¢$129K heldagainst the market price
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Traders hold Yes 85%22 of 28 tradersMarket price 71¢$494K held
- US recession by end of 2026?Traders hold No 96%26 of 27 tradersMarket price 95¢$214K held
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Traders hold Yes 69%18 of 26 tradersMarket price 71¢$332K held
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Traders hold No 35%6 of 17 tradersMarket price 98¢$82K held
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Traders hold No 18%3 of 17 tradersMarket price 98¢$43K held
- Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Traders hold No 57%8 of 14 tradersMarket price 99¢$53K held
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Traders hold Yes 86%12 of 14 tradersMarket price 0.5¢$1K heldagainst the market price
- Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Traders hold No 23%3 of 13 tradersMarket price 73¢$54K held
- Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Traders hold No 46%6 of 13 tradersMarket price 89¢$10K held
- Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Traders hold Yes 55%6 of 11 tradersMarket price 73¢$33K held
- Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Traders hold Yes 64%7 of 11 tradersMarket price 72¢$24K held
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?Traders hold Yes 82%9 of 11 tradersMarket price 73¢$16K held
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Traders hold No 36%4 of 11 tradersMarket price 99¢$7K held
- Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Traders hold Yes 91%10 of 11 tradersMarket price 1.1¢$3K heldagainst the market price
- Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%11 of 11 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$192 heldagainst the market price
- Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%10 of 10 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$206 heldagainst the market price
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%10 of 10 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$87 heldagainst the market price
- Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Traders hold Yes 90%9 of 10 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$19 heldagainst the market price
- Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?Traders hold Yes 89%8 of 9 tradersMarket price 94¢$11K held
- Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Traders hold Yes 56%5 of 9 tradersMarket price 28¢$6K heldagainst the market price
- Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Traders hold Yes 89%8 of 9 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$202 heldagainst the market price
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%9 of 9 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$128 heldagainst the market price
- Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Traders hold Yes 63%5 of 8 tradersMarket price 99¢$24K held
- No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?Traders hold Yes 63%5 of 8 tradersMarket price 5.8¢$3K heldagainst the market price
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Traders hold Yes 71%5 of 7 tradersMarket price 25¢$20K heldagainst the market price
- Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?Traders hold No 100%7 of 7 tradersMarket price 96¢$15K held
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Traders hold No 43%3 of 7 tradersMarket price 100¢$4K held
- Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Traders hold Yes 43%3 of 7 tradersMarket price 65¢$4K held
- No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?Traders hold Yes 57%4 of 7 tradersMarket price 90¢$3K held
- Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%7 of 7 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$31 heldagainst the market price
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%7 of 7 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$8 heldagainst the market price
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?Traders hold No 83%5 of 6 tradersMarket price 98¢$9K held
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?Traders hold No 83%5 of 6 tradersMarket price 95¢$8K held
- Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?Traders hold No 67%4 of 6 tradersMarket price 98¢$4K held
- Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 97¢$3K held
- Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?Traders hold No 33%2 of 6 tradersMarket price 62¢$2K held
- Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?Traders hold No 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 98¢$2K held
- Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?Traders hold Yes 67%4 of 6 tradersMarket price 65¢$1K held
- Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Traders hold No 20%1 of 6 tradersMarket price 90¢$549 held
- Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Traders hold Yes 33%2 of 6 tradersMarket price 9.5¢$399 heldagainst the market price
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$8 heldagainst the market price
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Traders hold Yes 83%5 of 6 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$7 heldagainst the market price
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Traders hold No 100%5 of 5 tradersMarket price 98¢$32K held
- Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?Traders hold No 80%4 of 5 tradersMarket price 99¢$24K held
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?Traders hold No 60%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 90¢$23K held
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?Traders hold No 100%5 of 5 tradersMarket price 97¢$17K held
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027?Traders hold No 60%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 66¢$2K held
- Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?Traders hold Yes 80%4 of 5 tradersMarket price 63¢$1K held
- Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?Traders hold Yes 40%2 of 5 tradersMarket price 42¢$973 heldagainst the market price
- Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?Traders hold No 80%4 of 5 tradersMarket price 95¢$832 held
- Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?Traders hold No 40%2 of 5 tradersMarket price 74¢$318 held
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?Traders hold Yes 100%5 of 5 tradersMarket price 0.8¢$221 heldagainst the market price
Top traders in Economy
Tracked traders with 10 or more settled Economy consensus markets whose side won more often than its entry price implied, ranked by how much (on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short lucky run does not rank first). These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero.
- 1.0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271+42 ptsside won 100% of 39 · avg entry 58¢ · ROI +23%
- 2.JAMJAMJAM4+33 ptsside won 95% of 44 · avg entry 62¢ · ROI +28%
- 3.HerrieDavis+23 ptsside won 72% of 83 · avg entry 50¢ · ROI −5%
- 4.TimeTraveler+28 ptsside won 68% of 34 · avg entry 39¢ · ROI 0%
- 5.cry.eth2+13 ptsside won 26% of 847 · avg entry 13¢ · ROI +10%
- 6.BikesAreTheBikes+24 ptsside won 56% of 45 · avg entry 32¢ · ROI +11%
- 7.Gohst+21 ptsside won 40% of 55 · avg entry 19¢ · ROI −7%
- 8.Elias.Thornwell+10 ptsside won 99% of 226 · avg entry 89¢ · ROI +3%
- 9.lissartter+14 ptsside won 83% of 169 · avg entry 69¢ · ROI −14%
- 10.cowcat+16 ptsside won 87% of 95 · avg entry 71¢ · ROI −5%
Recently settled Economy markets
What the tracked traders held when each market settled, and how it came out. A handful of markets says little about the next one.
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by October 31, 2026?Result: NoTraders held No 50%consensus was right
- Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by October 31, 2026?Result: NoTraders held No 50%consensus was right
- Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31?Result: NoTraders held No 100%consensus was right
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.35% in October?Result: NoTraders held Yes 17%consensus was wrong
- Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in October?Result: NoTraders held Yes 20%consensus was wrong
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% in October?Result: NoTraders held No 60%consensus was right
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in October?Result: NoTraders held Yes 40%consensus was wrong
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.38% in October?Result: NoTraders held Yes 60%consensus was wrong
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% in October?Result: NoTraders held Yes 60%consensus was wrong
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.41% in October?Result: NoTraders held Yes 40%consensus was wrong
- Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?Result: YesTraders held No 57%consensus was wrong
Holders update as the tracked traders trade, and prices refresh about once a minute. Only wallets with a position of at least 1 share count as holders; the side is the one with the most money behind it among holders with $100 or more in the market. PolyConsensus is not affiliated with Polymarket and this is not investment advice. More: all topics, the trader leaderboard, large trades.