Consensus PnL -$470K · win rate 57% (2898–2182, n=5080) · was PM monthly #1000 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-469.6K
Record
2898W / 2182L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 5080 settled
Batting Avg
60.1%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1322
Source
PM monthly #1000
Trades
28,598
Markets
18,123
Volume
$111.3M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 4 on the consensus side (50%)- Counter-Strike: WBT Academy vs Iberian Soul - Map 2 WinnerIberian Soul $94 · now 40¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (75% of 10)
- Counter-Strike: WBT Academy vs Iberian Soul (BO3) - Circuito Retake PlayoffsWBT Academy $80 · now 71¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (Iberian Soul)
- Counter-Strike: Acend vs FOKUS (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 PlayoffsFOKUS $56 · now 45¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (75% of 5)
- Counter-Strike: Acend vs FOKUS - Map 1 WinnerFOKUS $34 · now 0¢ · in at 55¢against the consensus (Acend)
Specialties
3,464 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 65¢- NFL
+45 pts
side won 99% of 374 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +36%
- College Football
+45 pts
side won 99% of 364 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +40%
- NBA
+48 pts
side won 98% of 55 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +42%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 97% of 135)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 99% of 680)
- 50–70¢: 34%(won 99% of 1167)
- 70¢ and up: 43%(won 100% of 1482)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.