Consensus PnL $3.5M · win rate 56% (101–79, n=180) · was PM monthly #373 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$3.5M
Record
101W / 79L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 180 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1408
Source
PM monthly #373
Trades
311
Markets
180
Volume
$13.7M
Specialties
111 settled consensus markets · held side won 94% at an average entry of 58¢- MLB
+46 pts
side won 100% of 20 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +49%
- Esports
+35 pts
side won 96% of 28 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +47%
- Soccer
+30 pts
side won 88% of 52 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +38%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 75% of 8)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 93% of 29)
- 50–70¢: 42%(won 96% of 47)
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 96% of 27)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.