Consensus PnL $26K · win rate 59% (583–413, n=996) · PM monthly #439 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$25.6K
Record
583W / 413L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 996 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1198
Source
PM monthly #439
Trades
88
Markets
1,010
Volume
$31.8K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Rolex Paris Masters: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Alexander BlockxAlexander Blockx $54 · now 59¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
163 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 52¢- Tennis
+44 pts
side won 96% of 82 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +48%
- NFL
+49 pts
side won 100% of 19 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +61%
- MLB
+45 pts
side won 100% of 25 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +42%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 71% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 25%(won 100% of 41)
- 50–70¢: 70%(won 99% of 114)
- 70¢ and up: 1%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.