Rolex Paris Masters: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Alexander Blockx
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Alexander Blockx (60%) · Alexander Blockx at 59¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Alexander Blockx
5
Alexander Blockx 60%
$6.1K
-$7.43
57.7¢ → 58.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAlexander Blockx at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Alexander Blockx. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Alexander Blockxavg 58¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$24.1 | 73% 3607-1333 (4940) |
 nigiri99CTR | Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 42¢ | $167.16 | $2.0K | -$27.02 | 46% 6994-8150 (15144) |
K5 k56CTR | Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 43¢ | $750 | $732.56 | -$26.16 | 57% 890-659 (1549) |
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3 | Alexander Blockxavg 56¢ | $483.64 | $500.91 | +$21.59 | 45% 403-498 (901) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Alexander Blockxavg 58¢ | $5.8 | $5.8 | +$0.05 | 52% 7597-6891 (14488) |
Invested
$2,795.59
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$24.1
Record
73%
3607-1333 (4940)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$167.16
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$27.02
Record
46%
6994-8150 (15144)
Invested
$750
Value
$732.56
PnL
-$26.16
Record
57%
890-659 (1549)
Invested
$483.64
Value
$500.91
PnL
+$21.59
Record
45%
403-498 (901)
Invested
$5.8
Value
$5.8
PnL
+$0.05
Record
52%
7597-6891 (14488)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.