Consensus PnL -$285K · win rate 75% (15–5, n=20) · was PM monthly #905 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-285.4K
Record
15W / 5L
Win Rate
75.0%
of 20 settled
Batting Avg
25.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#588
Source
PM monthly #905
Trades
122
Markets
24
Volume
$19.1M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $1.4M · now 97¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
- Anthropic IPO before 2027?Yes $3.9K · now 90¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (52% of 23)
Specialties
16 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 95¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0xA2cd4CcdA9A1f95949DF7A3355C4c2DAa0642Ba0-1729178570395's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 100%(won 100% of 16)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.