Anthropic IPO before 2027?

12 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (52%) · Yes at 90¢ · $39K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes90¢No10¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 52%

Total Value

$39.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

84.9¢ → 90¢

+6% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 23 top traders (52%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$35.2K

Total Shares39,344

Combined PnL+$1.8K

No11 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares39,881

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Yes — 52%No — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 34%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

52% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 89% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA Paul973973	Yesavg 89.2¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	+$60.88	89% 923-118 (1041)
SK skibabiba	Yesavg 83¢	$5.0K	$5.4K	+$420.04	87% 95-14 (109)
0X 0xe617861a96631d7cefdb1ad43e95c33b5946f251	Yesavg 83.7¢	$5.0K	$5.3K	+$378.63	89% 538-64 (602)
ImJustKen	Yesavg 80.8¢	$4.6K	$5.0K	+$392.86	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
TH thoodr	Yesavg 90.7¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$61.3	96% 631-24 (655)
0X 0xA2cd4CcdA9A1f95949DF7A3355C4c2DAa0642Ba0-1729178570395	Yesavg 88.1¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$60.04	— 15-4 (19)
PoppingChairman	Yesavg 76.3¢	$3.2K	$3.8K	+$560.33	71% 35-14 (49)
occasionalAwarenessCTR	Noavg 12.1¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$240.04	52% 284-262 (546)
GollumGekkoCTR	Noavg 17.7¢	$1.7K	$1.0K	-$693.8	68% 2074-958 (3032)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 16.3¢	$1.1K	$648.31	-$405.2	47% 476-535 (1011)
StupidMonkeyyyCTR	Noavg 24.5¢	$1.1K	$483.57	-$655.81	50% 147-145 (292)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Noavg 22.5¢	$820.96	$369.69	-$451.27	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
FU FulguratorCTR	Noavg 19.4¢	$502.12	$271.33	-$230.79	92% 61-5 (66)
AV aviato	Yesavg 92¢	$253.65	$246.76	-$5.51	84% 2440-449 (2889)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 88¢	$185.68	$188.85	+$3.17	89% 4653-547 (5200)
LI lissartter<$100	Yesavg 79.1¢	$44.91	$51.14	+$6.22	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR	Noavg 26.4¢	$103	$47.91	-$55.09	39% 175-269 (444)
Dr.mett<$100	Yesavg 72.6¢	$40.12	$41.99	+$1.88	86% 1417-234 (1651)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$61.95	$38.58	-$23.37	18% 3833-17376 (21209)
GohstCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$48	$33.6	-$14.4	49% 738-770 (1508)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100	Yesavg 81.8¢	$23.84	$26.13	+$2.29	50% 357-357 (714)
esports095CTR	Noavg 48¢	$18.46	$22.52	-$85.7	58% 651-467 (1118)
TT tttt123CTR<$100	Noavg 50.2¢	$71.28	$12.08	-$59.2	72% 1535-585 (2120)

Paul973973

Yes

Invested

$6,700

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$60.88

Record

89%

923-118 (1041)

skibabiba

Yes

Invested

$4,979.99

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$420.04

Record

87%

95-14 (109)

0xe617861a96631d7cefdb1ad43e95c33b5946f251

Yes

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$378.63

Record

89%

538-64 (602)

ImJustKen

Yes

Invested

$4,593.98

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$392.86

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

thoodr

Yes

Invested

$4,603.65

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$61.3

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

0xA2cd4CcdA9A1f95949DF7A3355C4c2DAa0642Ba0-1729178570395

Yes

Invested

$3,835.87

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$60.04

Record

—

15-4 (19)

PoppingChairman

Yes

Invested

$3,230.29

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$560.33

Record

71%

35-14 (49)

occasionalAwarenessCTR

Invested

$1,400.09

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$240.04

Record

52%

284-262 (546)

GollumGekkoCTR

Invested

$1,703.29

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$693.8

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$1,053.51

Value

$648.31

PnL

-$405.2

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

StupidMonkeyyyCTR

Invested

$1,139.38

Value

$483.57

PnL

-$655.81

Record

50%

147-145 (292)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Invested

$820.96

Value

$369.69

PnL

-$451.27

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

FulguratorCTR

Invested

$502.12

Value

$271.33

PnL

-$230.79

Record

92%

61-5 (66)

aviato

Yes

Invested

$253.65

Value

$246.76

PnL

-$5.51

Record

84%

2440-449 (2889)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$185.68

Value

$188.85

PnL

+$3.17

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

lissartter<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.91

Value

$51.14

PnL

+$6.22

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR

Invested

$103

Value

$47.91

PnL

-$55.09

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

Dr.mett<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.12

Value

$41.99

PnL

+$1.88

Record

86%

1417-234 (1651)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$61.95

Value

$38.58

PnL

-$23.37

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

GohstCTR<$100

Invested

$48

Value

$33.6

PnL

-$14.4

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.84

Value

$26.13

PnL

+$2.29

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

esports095CTR

Invested

$18.46

Value

$22.52

PnL

-$85.7

Record

58%

651-467 (1118)

tttt123CTR<$100

Invested

$71.28

Value

$12.08

PnL

-$59.2

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 23 top traders (52%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 34%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

52% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 89% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.3%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.