Consensus PnL $226K · win rate 49% (217–228, n=445) · was PM monthly #974 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$225.7K
Record
217W / 228L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 445 settled
Batting Avg
25.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1844
Source
PM monthly #974
Trades
415
Markets
534
Volume
$959.6K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Chris Godwin Jr.: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5Over $18 · now 54¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
Specialties
247 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 48¢- NBA
+52 pts
side won 100% of 40 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +55%
- MLB
+48 pts
side won 99% of 81 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +49%
- Soccer
+51 pts
side won 100% of 33 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +50%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 95% of 22)
- 30–50¢: 40%(won 99% of 99)
- 50–70¢: 47%(won 100% of 116)
- 70¢ and up: 4%(won 100% of 10)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.