Chris Godwin Jr.: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 54¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$2.0K
$10.94
53.9¢ → 54¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MD mde4life1986 | Overavg 54¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0 | 48% 159-175 (334) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $851 | $860.25 | +$9.25 | 53% 453-396 (849) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $52.02 | $53.76 | +$1.16 | 53% 11582-10087 (21669) |
0X 0xc33a100b8362bc732e78cce28c99739f173b3da3<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $18.42 | $18.42 | +$0.53 | 41% 195-277 (472) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $2.6 | +$0 | 50% 7972-8009 (15981) |
Invested
$1,052.6
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
159-175 (334)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$851
Value
$860.25
PnL
+$9.25
Record
53%
453-396 (849)
Invested
$52.02
Value
$53.76
PnL
+$1.16
Record
53%
11582-10087 (21669)
Invested
$18.42
Value
$18.42
PnL
+$0.53
Record
41%
195-277 (472)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7972-8009 (15981)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.