Consensus PnL -$640K · win rate 46% (171–199, n=370) · PM monthly #121 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-640.4K
Record
171W / 199L
Win Rate
46.0%
of 370 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1953
Source
PM monthly #121
Trades
472
Markets
456
Volume
$45.4M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $495K · now 19¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?No $49K · now 54¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (76% of 32)
Specialties
340 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 47¢- NBA
+16 pts
side won 68% of 50 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +25%
- Tennis
+8 pts
side won 40% of 10 · avg entry 32¢
ROI +29%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 43% of 14 at an average 47¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 13% of 55)
- 30–50¢: 40%(won 48% of 137)
- 50–70¢: 33%(won 62% of 111)
- 70¢ and up: 11%(won 78% of 37)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.