Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (81%). 40 of 53 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

40 of 53 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 19¢ · $9.2M held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$9.2M

Combined PnL

$33.3K

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 18.8¢

-61% since entry · 38 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

40 of 53 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)40 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes40 traders

Total Value$6.7M

Total Shares7,200,394

Combined PnL$-14.0K

No13 traders

Total Value$2.5M

Total Shares2,543,911

Combined PnL+$47.4K

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

40 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

42 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 73% · 26

Aligned

sharpYes 83% · 18

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 65% · 23

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 32

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 77% · 31

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
elmcap2CTR	Yesavg 50¢	$2.0M	$2.0M	+$0	89% 1665-205 (1870)
S- S-Works	Noavg 50¢	$1.9M	$1.9M	+$2.66	69% 2052-937 (2989)
thegreengemCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$1.1M	$1.1M	+$0	86% 340-55 (395)
BR BrightStarsCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$699.2K	$699.2K	+$0	66% 190-96 (286)
BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonateCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$506.4K	$506.4K	-$0	100% 88-0 (88)
0X 0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814CTR	Yesavg 50¢	$494.7K	$494.7K	+$0	47% 209-240 (449)
CarCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$490.1K	$490.1K	+$0	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
debased	Noavg 50¢	$380.9K	$381.0K	+$0.38	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
AL almost-neverCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$350.0K	$350.0K	+$0	45% 161-200 (361)
AnjunCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$300.0K	$300.0K	+$0	55% 4925-3986 (8911)
TH THEHIGHLIFECTR	Yesavg 50¢	$265.0K	$265.0K	+$0	54% 2484-2134 (4618)
VI VivianWardCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$1.2K	$140.5K	-$0	86% 3499-571 (4070)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 50.1¢	$100.2K	$100.3K	+$0.1	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
11 11122	Noavg 56.4¢	$65.1K	$95.4K	+$30.2K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
Jellow2CTR	Yesavg 50¢	$65.8K	$92.2K	+$0	64% 299-169 (468)
TE TeamA	Noavg 79.8¢	$61.7K	$62.9K	+$1.2K	— 2-0 (2)
DonationsReceiverCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$50.1K	$50.1K	+$0	60% 245-160 (405)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04CTR	Yesavg 50¢	$36.5K	$36.5K	-$0	88% 2229-292 (2521)
MO Monopoly_MoneyCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$811	$30.6K	$-8.9K	63% 159-95 (254)
Barkshire-HathawayCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$10.0K	$20.1K	+$0	64% 1093-623 (1716)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 41.1¢	$23.9K	$19.5K	$-4.3K	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
NadmiCTR	Yesavg 9.7¢	$9.9K	$19.0K	+$9.1K	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Yesavg 17.6¢	$562	$16.2K	+$371.14	47% 217-240 (457)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 20.3¢	$7.4K	$14.3K	+$6.9K	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$8.5K	$8.5K	$-14.0K	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

elmcap2CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,000,000

Value

$2.0M

PnL

+$0

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

S-

S-Works

Invested

$1,854,629.24

Value

$1.9M

PnL

+$2.66

Record

69%

2052-937 (2989)

thegreengemCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,144,024.93

Value

$1.1M

PnL

+$0

Record

86%

340-55 (395)

BrightStarsCTR

Yes

Invested

$699,194.63

Value

$699.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

190-96 (286)

BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonateCTR

Yes

Invested

$506,411.6

Value

$506.4K

PnL

-$0

Record

100%

88-0 (88)

0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814CTR

Yes

Invested

$494,660

Value

$494.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

209-240 (449)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$490,110.22

Value

$490.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

4164-2026 (6190)

debased

Invested

$380,949.62

Value

$381.0K

PnL

+$0.38

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

almost-neverCTR

Yes

Invested

$350,000

Value

$350.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

161-200 (361)

AnjunCTR

Yes

Invested

$300,000

Value

$300.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

4925-3986 (8911)

THEHIGHLIFECTR

Yes

Invested

$265,000

Value

$265.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

2484-2134 (4618)

VivianWardCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,158.22

Value

$140.5K

PnL

-$0

Record

86%

3499-571 (4070)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$100,249.9

Value

$100.3K

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

11122

Invested

$65,128.83

Value

$95.4K

PnL

+$30.2K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

Jellow2CTR

Yes

Invested

$65,800

Value

$92.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

299-169 (468)

TeamA

Invested

$61,723.33

Value

$62.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

—

2-0 (2)

DonationsReceiverCTR

Yes

Invested

$50,125

Value

$50.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

245-160 (405)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04CTR

Yes

Invested

$36,465.25

Value

$36.5K

PnL

-$0

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

Monopoly_MoneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$811

Value

$30.6K

PnL

$-8.9K

Record

63%

159-95 (254)

Barkshire-HathawayCTR

Yes

Invested

$10,000

Value

$20.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

1093-623 (1716)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$23,871.73

Value

$19.5K

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

NadmiCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,917.2

Value

$19.0K

PnL

+$9.1K

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

BTCGambler247CTR

Yes

Invested

$562

Value

$16.2K

PnL

+$371.14

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,387.5

Value

$14.3K

PnL

+$6.9K

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$8,518.8

Value

$8.5K

PnL

$-14.0K

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

40 of 53 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)40 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

40 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

42 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 73% · 26

Aligned

sharpYes 83% · 18

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 65% · 23

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 32

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 77% · 31

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.4%

18.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$390.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

490.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.