Consensus PnL $69K · win rate 52% (2880–2627, n=5507) · PM monthly #737 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$69.4K
Record
2880W / 2627L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 5507 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1605
Source
PM monthly #737
Trades
1,100
Markets
6,808
Volume
$912.6K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ETDown $1.6K · now 79¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (61% of 38)
Specialties
1,552 settled consensus markets · held side won 91% at an average entry of 57¢- MLB
+37 pts
side won 100% of 476 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +37%
- Crypto
+36 pts
side won 95% of 908 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +38%
- Esports
+40 pts
side won 100% of 23 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +28%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 30% of 164)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 97% of 201)
- 50–70¢: 51%(won 99% of 786)
- 70¢ and up: 26%(won 99% of 401)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.