Consensus PnL $73K · win rate 65% (2190–1167, n=3357) · was PM monthly #998 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$73.0K
Record
2190W / 1167L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 3357 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#977
Source
PM monthly #998
Record (90 d)
1913/2843 · 67%
Trades
16,112
Markets
43,546
Volume
$15.0M
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Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 5 on the consensus side (80%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ETDown $415 · now 51¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (75% of 59)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 7:05PM-7:10PM ETUp $251 · now 100¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (76% of 42)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ETUp $145 · now 19¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (51% of 55)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ETDown $45 · now 100¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (62% of 56)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 7:00PM-7:05PM ETDown $2 · now 1¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (Up)
Specialties
691 settled consensus markets · held side won 66% at an average entry of 60¢- Crypto
+5 pts
side won 66% of 691 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +6%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 12% of 120)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 28% of 89)
- 50–70¢: 24%(won 71% of 169)
- 70¢ and up: 45%(won 94% of 313)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.