Consensus PnL $91K · win rate 57% (366–276, n=642) · PM monthly #926 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$91.3K
Record
366W / 276L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 642 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1408
Source
PM monthly #926
Record (90 d)
312/1263 · 25%
Trades
112,425
Markets
17,680
Volume
$4.5M
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Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ETDown $641 · now 100¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (84% of 39)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ETDown $620 · now 100¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (82% of 41)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ETDown $614 · now 100¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (68% of 40)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ETDown $208 · now 100¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (77% of 24)
Specialties
473 settled consensus markets · held side won 68% at an average entry of 34¢- Crypto
+34 pts
side won 68% of 473 · avg entry 34¢
ROI +52%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 40%(won 35% of 188)
- 30–50¢: 38%(won 87% of 181)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 95% of 94)
- 70¢ and up: 2%(won 100% of 10)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.