Consensus PnL -$11K · win rate 44% (231–292, n=523) · PM monthly #941 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-10.8K
Record
231W / 292L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 523 settled
Batting Avg
53.3%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2013
Source
PM monthly #941
Trades
585
Markets
694
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $485 · now 1¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
Specialties
507 settled consensus markets · held side won 45% at an average entry of 45¢- Elections
+6 pts
side won 38% of 16 · avg entry 31¢
ROI −15%
Weakest: MMA — held side won 38% of 21 at an average 40¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 24%(won 14% of 123)
- 30–50¢: 35%(won 37% of 176)
- 50–70¢: 28%(won 62% of 143)
- 70¢ and up: 13%(won 91% of 65)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.