Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.7¢ · $36K held · ends Nov 8, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$35.7K
-$724.65
13.7¢ → 0.7¢
-95% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
406 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StarMasterCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $22.5K | $35.0K | +$0 | 53% 1858-1640 (3498) |
 12xmrboltCTR | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $451.31 | $484.64 | -$755.75 | 44% 247-310 (557) |
 ScottyNoooCTR | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $110.11 | $154.15 | +$44.04 | 50% 1537-1513 (3050) |
11 11122CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $39.06 | $35 | -$4.06 | 44% 1401-1817 (3218) |
 DonkovCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $45 | $35 | -$10 | 71% 968-396 (1364) |
FA failstoberCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $13.5 | $25.98 | +$1.21 | 26% 351-985 (1336) |
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100 | Yes | $2.02 | $2.02 | -$0.23 | 7% 14-187 (201) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.04 | $0.13 | +$0.13 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
StarMasterCTRInvested
$22,500
Value
$35.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1858-1640 (3498)
12xmrboltCTRInvested
$451.31
Value
$484.64
PnL
-$755.75
Record
44%
247-310 (557)
ScottyNoooCTRInvested
$110.11
Value
$154.15
PnL
+$44.04
Record
50%
1537-1513 (3050)
Invested
$39.06
Value
$35
PnL
-$4.06
Record
44%
1401-1817 (3218)
DonkovCTR<$100Invested
$45
Value
$35
PnL
-$10
Record
71%
968-396 (1364)
Invested
$13.5
Value
$25.98
PnL
+$1.21
Record
26%
351-985 (1336)
Invested
$2.02
Value
$2.02
PnL
-$0.23
Record
7%
14-187 (201)
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.13
PnL
+$0.13
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.