MMA: what top Polymarket traders hold
UFC fights and cards. These are the MMA markets on Polymarket in which at least five of the top traders we track hold a position, with the side most of them hold (the consensus), what share of them hold it and the market's own price for that side.
A consensus is a head count of who holds what, not a probability, and following it did not pay on average in our backtests — see how it works.
- Live consensus markets
- 5
- Recently settled, consensus right
- 9 of 13
- Prices as of
- Nov 1, 14:41 UTC
Live MMA consensus markets (5)
- Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Traders hold Yes 86%6 of 7 tradersMarket price 92¢$6K held
- Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Traders hold Yes 71%5 of 7 tradersMarket price 92¢$1K held
- Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Traders hold Yes 83%5 of 6 tradersMarket price 95¢$5K held
- Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Traders hold No 50%3 of 6 tradersMarket price 94¢$535 held
- Will Sean O'Malley be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Traders hold No 40%2 of 5 tradersMarket price 97¢$2K held
Top traders in MMA
Tracked traders with 10 or more settled MMA consensus markets whose side won more often than its entry price implied, ranked by how much (on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short lucky run does not rank first). These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero.
- 1.hi774c+64 ptsside won 100% of 84 · avg entry 36¢ · ROI +63%
- 2.UpTheBlues+63 ptsside won 100% of 36 · avg entry 37¢ · ROI +63%
- 3.ic4cream+61 ptsside won 100% of 30 · avg entry 39¢ · ROI +56%
- 4.JohnnyWins+58 ptsside won 100% of 28 · avg entry 42¢ · ROI +61%
- 5.LiquidatedDegen+53 ptsside won 96% of 53 · avg entry 43¢ · ROI +52%
- 6.wr0ngw4yb3tt0r+45 ptsside won 100% of 68 · avg entry 55¢ · ROI +47%
- 7.0x9698eadc480972cb71e110b8adeb46451d142504+48 ptsside won 98% of 43 · avg entry 50¢ · ROI +47%
- 8.0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72fe+61 ptsside won 100% of 12 · avg entry 39¢ · ROI +63%
- 9.0xc33a100b8362bc732e78cce28c99739f173b3da3+51 ptsside won 100% of 22 · avg entry 49¢ · ROI +46%
- 10.esportsbetter1+52 ptsside won 100% of 19 · avg entry 48¢ · ROI +50%
Recently settled MMA markets
What the tracked traders held when each market settled, and how it came out. A handful of markets says little about the next one.
- O/U 1.5 RoundsResult: OverTraders held Under 43%consensus was wrong
- O/U 2.5 RoundsResult: OverTraders held Over 86%consensus was right
- O/U 1.5 RoundsResult: OverTraders held Over 20%consensus was right
- UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)Result: Tom NolanTraders held Tom Nolan 61%consensus was right
- UFC Fight Night: Ode' Osbourne vs. Cody Durden (Flyweight, Main Card)Result: Cody DurdenTraders held Cody Durden 62%consensus was right
- UFC Fight Night: Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card)Result: Luana SantosTraders held Luana Santos 51%consensus was right
- UFC Fight Night: Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith (Welterweight, Main Card)Result: Jacobe SmithTraders held Jacobe Smith 45%consensus was right
- UFC Fight Night: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Main Card)Result: Jean-Paul LebosnoyaniTraders held Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani 69%consensus was right
- Fight to Go the Distance?Result: NoTraders held Yes 43%consensus was wrong
- UFC Fight Night: Dakota Hope vs. Francis Marshall (Featherweight, Main Card)Result: Dakota HopeTraders held Francis Marshall 38%consensus was wrong
- UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Rodrigo Sezinando (Welterweight, Prelims)Result: Rodrigo SezinandoTraders held Rodrigo Sezinando 58%consensus was right
- UFC Fight Night: Piera Rodriguez vs. Talita Alencar (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)Result: Piera RodriguezTraders held Piera Rodriguez 67%consensus was right
Holders update as the tracked traders trade, and prices refresh about once a minute. Only wallets with a position of at least 1 share count as holders; the side is the one with the most money behind it among holders with $100 or more in the market. PolyConsensus is not affiliated with Polymarket and this is not investment advice. More: all topics, the trader leaderboard, large trades.