Consensus PnL -$244K · win rate 51% (633–602, n=1235) · PM monthly #333 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-244.0K
Record
633W / 602L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 1235 settled
Batting Avg
84.8%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1685
Source
PM monthly #333 + pinned
Trades
21,175
Markets
2,164
Volume
$37.4M
Specialties
824 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 51¢- NHL
+50 pts
side won 100% of 217 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +49%
- MLB
+50 pts
side won 100% of 145 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +48%
- College Football
+52 pts
side won 100% of 84 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +47%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 100% of 28)
- 30–50¢: 46%(won 100% of 383)
- 50–70¢: 42%(won 100% of 350)
- 70¢ and up: 8%(won 100% of 63)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.