Consensus PnL $4.5M · win rate 62% (393–245, n=638) · PM monthly #68 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$4.5M
Record
393W / 245L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 638 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1068
Source
PM monthly #68
Trades
150
Markets
659
Volume
$11.2M
Specialties
399 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 46¢- Esports
+54 pts
side won 99% of 287 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +56%
- Tennis
+49 pts
side won 98% of 48 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +52%
- Soccer
+48 pts
side won 95% of 64 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +50%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 92% of 36)
- 30–50¢: 56%(won 99% of 223)
- 50–70¢: 33%(won 100% of 133)
- 70¢ and up: 2%(won 100% of 7)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.