Consensus PnL $243K · win rate 98% (3217–79, n=3296) · PM monthly #125 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$243.4K
Record
3217W / 79L
Win Rate
98.0%
of 3296 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#96
Source
PM monthly #125
Trades
290
Markets
3,353
Volume
$52.0M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Courmayeur: Noma Noha Akugue vs Alina CharaevaAlina Charaeva $455 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (83% of 13)
Specialties
2,982 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 98¢- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 90% of 21 · avg entry 87¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 99% of 81 at an average 100¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 20% of 40)
- 30–50¢: 0%(won 50% of 10)
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 83% of 18)
- 70¢ and up: 98%(won 100% of 2914)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.