Courmayeur: Noma Noha Akugue vs Alina Charaeva

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Alina Charaeva (80%) · Alina Charaeva at 78¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 8

Noma Noha Akugue23¢Alina Charaeva77¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alina Charaeva

Consensus Traders

Alina Charaeva 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.2K

Combined PnL

-$454.13

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 77.5¢

+6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlina Charaeva at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alina Charaeva

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Noma Noha Akugue23%

Alina Charaeva78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Noma Noha Akugue2 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares58,669

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Alina Charaeva8 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares14,101

Combined PnL+$973.2

Noma Noha Akugue — 20%Alina Charaeva — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Alina Charaeva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Noma Noha Akugue) and the top 1000 (7 on Alina Charaeva) disagree here.

whaleAlina Charaeva 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNoma Noha Akugue 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrAlina Charaeva 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNoma Noha Akugue 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Alina Charaeva 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KK KkunnCTR	Noma Noha Akugueavg 16.9¢	$9.8K	$8.5K	$-1.4K	44% 235-303 (538)
RN1	Alina Charaevaavg 72.3¢	$6.8K	$7.8K	+$1.0K	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
UP UpTheBlues	Alina Charaevaavg 76¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$21.72	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Alina Charaevaavg 71¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$57.88	52% 13929-12704 (26633)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Alina Charaevaavg 82¢	$802.3	$741.5	-$60.8	48% 1065-1165 (2230)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Alina Charaevaavg 78.4¢	$920.73	$553.36	-$29.35	53% 674-597 (1271)
└ Alina Charaeva leg	Alina Charaevaavg 78.4¢	$463.88	$435.12	-$27.61
└ Noma Noha Akugue leg	Noma Noha Akugueavg 23.7¢	$105.66	$118.25	-$1.74
TH thestingsnake	Alina Charaevaavg 76.6¢	$638.5	$384.04	-$2.86	60% 4104-2765 (6869)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1	Alina Charaevaavg 58¢	$98.3	$122.03	+$23.73	48% 880-964 (1844)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noma Noha Akugueavg 35¢	$200.79	$81.87	-$35.69	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
PA pauleta23<$100	Alina Charaevaavg 68.5¢	$30	$31.53	+$1.53	67% 23466-11821 (35287)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Alina Charaevaavg 61¢	$6.1	$7.2	+$1.1	85% 5885-1004 (6889)

KkunnCTR

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$9,849.19

Value

$8.5K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

44%

235-303 (538)

RN1

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$6,763.79

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

UpTheBlues

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$1,761.97

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$21.72

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$1,256.33

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$57.88

Record

52%

13929-12704 (26633)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$802.3

Value

$741.5

PnL

-$60.8

Record

48%

1065-1165 (2230)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$920.73

Value

$553.36

PnL

-$29.35

Record

53%

674-597 (1271)

Both legs:

Alina Charaeva$463.8878.4¢-$27.61

Noma Noha Akugue$105.6623.7¢-$1.74

thestingsnake

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$638.5

Value

$384.04

PnL

-$2.86

Record

60%

4104-2765 (6869)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$98.3

Value

$122.03

PnL

+$23.73

Record

48%

880-964 (1844)

VeryLucky888CTR

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$200.79

Value

$81.87

PnL

-$35.69

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

pauleta23<$100

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$30

Value

$31.53

PnL

+$1.53

Record

67%

23466-11821 (35287)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$6.1

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$1.1

Record

85%

5885-1004 (6889)

Research grade

NeutralAlina Charaeva at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alina Charaeva

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Alina Charaeva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Noma Noha Akugue) and the top 1000 (7 on Alina Charaeva) disagree here.

whaleAlina Charaeva 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNoma Noha Akugue 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrAlina Charaeva 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNoma Noha Akugue 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Alina Charaeva 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alina Charaeva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.