Consensus PnL $2.7K · win rate 100% (18–0, n=18) · was PM monthly #672 · holds 13 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$2.7K
Record
18W / 0L
Win Rate
100.0%
of 18 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#11
Source
PM monthly #672
Trades
17
Markets
34
Volume
$261.4K
Top consensus positions
13 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 13 on the consensus side (100%)- Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?No $31K · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (86% of 21)
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $20K · now 98¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (95% of 37)
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?No $9.1K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (95% of 20)
- Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?No $7.1K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?No $6.4K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (88% of 16)
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?No $5.9K · now 92¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?No $5.1K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?No $3.0K · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (94% of 18)
Specialties
18 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 98¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where HAOI's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 100%(won 100% of 18)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.