Xi Jinping out before 2027?

35 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold No (95%) · No at 98¢ · $1.5M held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 95%

Total Value

$1.5M

Combined PnL

$109.3K

Smart Money Entry

91.1¢ → 98¢

+7% since entry · 35 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

35 of 37 top traders (95%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No35 traders

Total Value$1.5M

Total Shares1,520,154

Combined PnL+$109.3K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$5.54

Total Shares250

Combined PnL-$1.64

No — 95%Yes — 5%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

35 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

95% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 13

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 23

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 95% · 21

Aligned

Top 1000No 95% · 22

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ON onekey02	Noavg 92¢	$307.2K	$327.3K	+$19.9K	98% 415-10 (425)
elmcap2	Noavg 96.8¢	$261.3K	$255.9K	+$2.9K	89% 1665-205 (1870)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 95.8¢	$201.9K	$206.5K	+$4.5K	85% 605-108 (713)
WE weaklei	Noavg 72.4¢	$162.7K	$127.3K	+$32.8K	94% 175-12 (187)
IG IGORS	Noavg 96.3¢	$106.6K	$108.5K	+$1.9K	— 10-1 (11)
allenzzz	Noavg 94.1¢	$83.2K	$86.7K	+$3.4K	78% 125-36 (161)
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222	Noavg 60.8¢	$20.5K	$57.0K	+$26.4K	88% 212-28 (240)
PM pmcb	Noavg 90¢	$41.8K	$45.5K	+$3.6K	91% 49-5 (54)
YI yingxer	Noavg 95.2¢	$35.6K	$36.4K	+$800.84	97% 35-1 (36)
AF afdafdafdafdafd	Noavg 96.7¢	$35.8K	$36.3K	+$475.05	73% 196-73 (269)
0X 0xB9d89bef8c935082F6a86355bD9667402D92275A-1751857844680	Noavg 80.5¢	$28.5K	$34.7K	+$6.2K	— 16-3 (19)
FR freeman123	Noavg 96.2¢	$26.9K	$27.4K	+$490	82% 553-125 (678)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 95.4¢	$20.2K	$23.9K	+$707.91	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
AE Aeglos	Noavg 96¢	$21.1K	$21.6K	+$419.63	82% 18-4 (22)
HA HAOI	Noavg 94¢	$19.1K	$19.9K	+$807.18	100% 20-0 (20)
DEGENKHAN	Noavg 93.8¢	$14.3K	$14.7K	+$397.77	66% 1107-565 (1672)
classified	Noavg 96¢	$10.3K	$10.7K	+$324.95	58% 844-614 (1458)
57 57284910	Noavg 97.5¢	$9.7K	$9.8K	+$50.06	100% 23-0 (23)
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul	Noavg 93.6¢	$8.0K	$7.8K	+$351.01	63% 353-204 (557)
TR tryingout1	Noavg 93.2¢	$6.1K	$6.4K	+$319.9	80% 85-21 (106)
wish-	Noavg 95.5¢	$5.5K	$5.6K	+$131.75	79% 1176-319 (1495)
Debosnys	Noavg 97.2¢	$12.9K	$5.5K	+$1.9K	89% 1868-225 (2093)
FI firegold	Noavg 94.5¢	$5.3K	$5.4K	+$85.31	59% 323-224 (547)
bigshort	Noavg 82.3¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$162	83% 357-71 (428)
SB sbimbg	Noavg 97.1¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$17	70% 3189-1369 (4558)

onekey02

Invested

$307,218.03

Value

$327.3K

PnL

+$19.9K

Record

98%

415-10 (425)

elmcap2

Invested

$261,271.74

Value

$255.9K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$201,898.4

Value

$206.5K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

weaklei

Invested

$162,652.45

Value

$127.3K

PnL

+$32.8K

Record

94%

175-12 (187)

IGORS

Invested

$106,598.57

Value

$108.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

—

10-1 (11)

allenzzz

Invested

$83,249.76

Value

$86.7K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

78%

125-36 (161)

forinnerpsandr1x11222

Invested

$20,504

Value

$57.0K

PnL

+$26.4K

Record

88%

212-28 (240)

pmcb

Invested

$41,843.52

Value

$45.5K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

91%

49-5 (54)

yingxer

Invested

$35,560.46

Value

$36.4K

PnL

+$800.84

Record

97%

35-1 (36)

afdafdafdafdafd

Invested

$35,771.51

Value

$36.3K

PnL

+$475.05

Record

73%

196-73 (269)

0xB9d89bef8c935082F6a86355bD9667402D92275A-1751857844680

Invested

$28,485.37

Value

$34.7K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

—

16-3 (19)

freeman123

Invested

$26,936

Value

$27.4K

PnL

+$490

Record

82%

553-125 (678)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$20,189.3

Value

$23.9K

PnL

+$707.91

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Aeglos

Invested

$21,140.37

Value

$21.6K

PnL

+$419.63

Record

82%

18-4 (22)

HAOI

Invested

$19,122.08

Value

$19.9K

PnL

+$807.18

Record

100%

20-0 (20)

DEGENKHAN

Invested

$14,335.23

Value

$14.7K

PnL

+$397.77

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

classified

Invested

$10,348.07

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$324.95

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

57284910

Invested

$9,745

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$50.06

Record

100%

23-0 (23)

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

Invested

$8,000

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$351.01

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

tryingout1

Invested

$6,118.7

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$319.9

Record

80%

85-21 (106)

wish-

Invested

$5,511.19

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$131.75

Record

79%

1176-319 (1495)

Debosnys

Invested

$12,895.31

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

89%

1868-225 (2093)

firegold

Invested

$5,304.68

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$85.31

Record

59%

323-224 (547)

bigshort

Invested

$1,798.01

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$162

Record

83%

357-71 (428)

sbimbg

Invested

$1,942

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$17

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

35 of 37 top traders (95%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

35 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

95% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 13

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 23

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 95% · 21

Aligned

Top 1000No 95% · 22

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.