Consensus PnL -$49K · win rate 41% (92–130, n=222) · was PM monthly #694 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-49.4K
Record
92W / 130L
Win Rate
41.0%
of 222 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2084
Source
PM monthly #694
Trades
115
Markets
231
Volume
$2.4M
Specialties
191 settled consensus markets · held side won 45% at an average entry of 46¢- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 52% of 66 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +8%
- Tennis
+13 pts
side won 36% of 11 · avg entry 24¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: NHL — held side won 38% of 32 at an average 48¢ entry (−11 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 20% of 20)
- 30–50¢: 53%(won 47% of 101)
- 50–70¢: 35%(won 48% of 66)
- 70¢ and up: 2%(won 75% of 4)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.