Consensus PnL $16K · win rate 44% (1703–2131, n=3834) · was PM monthly #946 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$16.0K
Record
1703W / 2131L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 3834 settled
Batting Avg
53.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2225
Source
PM monthly #946
Record (90 d)
402/821 · 49%
Trades
2,041
Markets
4,415
Volume
$10.0M
Specialties
4,195 settled consensus markets · held side won 44% at an average entry of 44¢- Tennis
+3 pts
side won 33% of 97 · avg entry 30¢
ROI +5%
- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 62% of 13 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +10%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 39% of 556 at an average 40¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 22%(won 20% of 933)
- 30–50¢: 39%(won 41% of 1646)
- 50–70¢: 33%(won 58% of 1379)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 81% of 237)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.