Consensus PnL $4.0K · win rate 57% (380–283, n=663) · was PM monthly #970 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$4.0K
Record
380W / 283L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 663 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1334
Source
PM monthly #970
Trades
50
Markets
668
Volume
$169.7K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Celtics vs. MagicCeltics $44 · now 70¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (50% of 25)
Specialties
560 settled consensus markets · held side won 57% at an average entry of 59¢- NBA
+17 pts
side won 83% of 18 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +15%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 56% of 427 at an average 59¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 12% of 17)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 47% of 117)
- 50–70¢: 56%(won 59% of 311)
- 70¢ and up: 21%(won 70% of 115)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.