Celtics vs. Magic

10 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (43%) · Celtics at 71¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 1

Celtics71¢Magic29¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.8K

Combined PnL

$0.89

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 70.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

10 of 23 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics71%

Magic30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics10 traders

Total Value$16.6K

Total Shares23,555

Combined PnL+$216.86

Magic13 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares21,158

Combined PnL-$215.97

Celtics — 43%Magic — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Celtics) and the top 1000 (21 on Magic) disagree here.

whaleCeltics 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpCeltics 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrMagic 56% · 18

Diverging

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Magic 52% · 21

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740	Celticsavg 70¢	$13.6K	$13.7K	+$97.18	54% 325-279 (604)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Celticsavg 68.7¢	$4.5K	$4.6K	+$43.84	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 68.7¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$72.48
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 30¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$28.65
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Magicavg 31¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$73.3	53% 615-541 (1156)
Painfulvoid	Celticsavg 66¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$92.4	63% 1767-1027 (2794)
HI hi774cCTR	Magicavg 30¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$17.45	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
TA takeormakeCTR	Magicavg 31¢	$999.75	$951.38	-$48.37	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Magicavg 30¢	$809.53	$798.31	-$11.22	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
0xd3B697c398136430AA46b5C2C62ec4166319Fa47-1770489446062CTR	Magicavg 31¢	$802	$776.13	-$12.93	34% 128-248 (376)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Celticsavg 69¢	$690	$700	+$5	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941	Celticsavg 67¢	$527.96	$551.6	+$19.7	59% 256-177 (433)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Magicavg 33.3¢	$588.12	$530.62	-$66.34	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
FO Forecastication2ARB<$100	Magicavg 33.7¢	$341.22	$320.5	-$18.39	50% 7125-7171 (14296)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 33.7¢	$217.47	$193.8	-$20.44
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 68.4¢	$123.75	$126.7	+$2.05
LU LuckyLooCTR	Magicavg 30¢	$286.41	$281.64	-$4.77	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
VeryLucky888CTR	Magicavg 29¢	$4.1K	$173.78	+$23.34	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
SE sentrioCTR	Magicavg 30¢	$165.02	$162.26	-$2.75	50% 24945-24626 (49571)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Celticsavg 69¢	$70.45	$71.47	+$1.02	65% 1758-962 (2720)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Magicavg 30¢	$65.31	$64.22	-$1.09	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
funnydayCTR<$100	Magicavg 30¢	$60	$59	-$1	50% 3914-3899 (7813)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Celticsavg 67.5¢	$49.1	$50.91	+$1.17	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
LE LeonDk<$100	Celticsavg 70¢	$44.49	$44.49	-$0.32	56% 359-277 (636)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Magicavg 33¢	$17.7	$16.09	-$1.34	53% 453-396 (849)
poshposhCTR<$100	Magicavg 28¢	$14.03	$15.03	+$1.25	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Celticsavg 69.3¢	$14.69	$14.95	+$0.26	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
0xheavy888<$100	Celticsavg 69¢	$13.8	$14.1	+$0.3	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Celticsavg 69¢	$6.9	$7	+$0.15	52% 7503-6793 (14296)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740

Celtics

Invested

$13,604.53

Value

$13.7K

PnL

+$97.18

Record

54%

325-279 (604)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$4,509.42

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$43.84

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

Both legs:

Celtics$2,790.7168.7¢+$72.48

Magic$1,718.7130¢-$28.65

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Magic

Invested

$1,514.82

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$73.3

Record

53%

615-541 (1156)

Painfulvoid

Celtics

Invested

$1,354.41

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$92.4

Record

63%

1767-1027 (2794)

hi774cCTR

Magic

Invested

$1,047

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$17.45

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

takeormakeCTR

Magic

Invested

$999.75

Value

$951.38

PnL

-$48.37

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

HerdoniaCTR

Magic

Invested

$809.53

Value

$798.31

PnL

-$11.22

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

0xd3B697c398136430AA46b5C2C62ec4166319Fa47-1770489446062CTR

Magic

Invested

$802

Value

$776.13

PnL

-$12.93

Record

34%

128-248 (376)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Celtics

Invested

$690

Value

$700

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941

Celtics

Invested

$527.96

Value

$551.6

PnL

+$19.7

Record

59%

256-177 (433)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Magic

Invested

$588.12

Value

$530.62

PnL

-$66.34

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

Forecastication2ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$341.22

Value

$320.5

PnL

-$18.39

Record

50%

7125-7171 (14296)

Both legs:

Magic$217.4733.7¢-$20.44

Celtics$123.7568.4¢+$2.05

LuckyLooCTR

Magic

Invested

$286.41

Value

$281.64

PnL

-$4.77

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

VeryLucky888CTR

Magic

Invested

$4,060.21

Value

$173.78

PnL

+$23.34

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

sentrioCTR

Magic

Invested

$165.02

Value

$162.26

PnL

-$2.75

Record

50%

24945-24626 (49571)

darkumbreon88<$100

Celtics

Invested

$70.45

Value

$71.47

PnL

+$1.02

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$65.31

Value

$64.22

PnL

-$1.09

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

funnydayCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$60

Value

$59

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

3914-3899 (7813)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Celtics

Invested

$49.1

Value

$50.91

PnL

+$1.17

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

LeonDk<$100

Celtics

Invested

$44.49

Value

$44.49

PnL

-$0.32

Record

56%

359-277 (636)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$17.7

Value

$16.09

PnL

-$1.34

Record

53%

453-396 (849)

poshposhCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$14.03

Value

$15.03

PnL

+$1.25

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Celtics

Invested

$14.69

Value

$14.95

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

0xheavy888<$100

Celtics

Invested

$13.8

Value

$14.1

PnL

+$0.3

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

ameisgoat11<$100

Celtics

Invested

$6.9

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

10 of 23 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Celtics) and the top 1000 (21 on Magic) disagree here.

whaleCeltics 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpCeltics 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrMagic 56% · 18

Diverging

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Magic 52% · 21

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.