Consensus PnL $13K · win rate 55% (252–209, n=461) · PM monthly #807 · holds 175 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$12.9K
Record
252W / 209L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 461 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1516
Source
PM monthly #807
Record (90 d)
180/205 · 88%
Trades
46
Markets
733
Volume
$310.3K
Top consensus positions
175 in listed consensus markets · 103 of 175 on the consensus side (59%)- Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Karen KhachanovKaren Khachanov $17K · now 85¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (82% of 43)
- Costa do Sauipe: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Wilson LeiteSantiago Rodriguez Taverna $4.1K · now 99¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (38% of 16)
- Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)Seahawks $3.6K · now 56¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (75% of 16)
- Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Hawks $3.5K · now 63¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (24% of 19)
- Villa Maria: Bruno Fernandez vs Nicolas KickerNicolas Kicker $3.5K · now 100¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (57% of 22)
- Mjallby AIF vs. Kalmar FF: O/U 1.5Under $3.3K · now 94¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (Over)
- Will Stade de Reims win on 2026-10-31?Yes $2.3K · now 55¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (No)
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Celtics $2.2K · now 48¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Rockets)
Specialties
137 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 63¢- Soccer
+35 pts
side won 100% of 96 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +49%
- Tennis
+25 pts
side won 100% of 18 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +21%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 100% of 16)
- 30–50¢: 27%(won 100% of 37)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 100% of 21)
- 70¢ and up: 46%(won 100% of 63)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.