Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Nicolas Kicker — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Nicolas Kicker
Villa Maria: Bruno Fernandez vs Nicolas Kicker
Resolved Nicolas Kicker. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Nicolas Kicker. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Nicolas Kicker 54%
7 arb excluded
$26.0K
$2.1K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100 | Nicolas Kickeravg 76.5¢ | $5.3K | $4.0K | $-1.3K | 51% 4292-4124 (8416) |
| └ Bruno Fernandez leg | Bruno Fernandezavg 29.2¢ | $2.2K | — | $-2.2K | |
| └ Nicolas Kicker leg | Nicolas Kickeravg 76.5¢ | $3.1K | $4.0K | +$940.96 | |
VE Venusian | Nicolas Kickeravg 72.6¢ | $6.1K | $8.5K | +$2.3K | 51% 317-303 (620) |
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100 | Nicolas Kickeravg 72.3¢ | $3.3K | $2.8K | -$490.83 | 53% 6615-5887 (12502) |
| └ Bruno Fernandez leg | Bruno Fernandezavg 29¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | |
| └ Nicolas Kicker leg | Nicolas Kickeravg 72.3¢ | $2.0K | $2.8K | +$778.69 | |
LI LimousinARB<$100 | Nicolas Kickeravg 74.4¢ | $6.2K | $2.9K | +$187 | 53% 344-310 (654) |
| └ Nicolas Kicker leg | Nicolas Kickeravg 74.4¢ | $2.2K | $2.9K | +$749.87 | |
| └ Bruno Fernandez leg | Bruno Fernandezavg 13.9¢ | $562.81 | — | -$562.87 | |
LI LightParadox | Nicolas Kickeravg 67.1¢ | $2.5K | $3.5K | +$982.68 | 53% 337-294 (631) |
MR MrDoucheCTR | Bruno Fernandezavg 34¢ | $1.4K | — | $-1.4K | 82% 1695-374 (2069) |
TH thestingsnake | Nicolas Kickeravg 75.6¢ | $2.1K | $1.8K | +$292.95 | 60% 4167-2793 (6960) |
NO NotJumpARB<$100 | Nicolas Kickeravg 56¢ | $585.95 | $580.85 | -$5.1 | 44% 9922-12870 (22792) |
| └ Bruno Fernandez leg | Bruno Fernandezavg 17.4¢ | $260.68 | — | -$260.68 | |
| └ Nicolas Kicker leg | Nicolas Kickeravg 56¢ | $325.27 | $580.85 | +$255.57 | |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Bruno Fernandezavg 22.4¢ | $1.3K | $334.07 | -$337.89 | 47% 13102-14675 (27777) |
| └ Bruno Fernandez leg | Bruno Fernandezavg 22.4¢ | $359.14 | — | -$354.84 | |
| └ Nicolas Kicker leg | Nicolas Kickeravg 82.1¢ | $274.29 | $334.07 | +$16.95 | |
FL Flaznorp | Nicolas Kickeravg 83.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$178.28 | 51% 17649-16650 (34299) |
SC SchruteBucksCTR | Bruno Fernandezavg 9.6¢ | $255.75 | — | -$63.34 | 56% 1887-1461 (3348) |
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100 | Nicolas Kickeravg 86.2¢ | $432.22 | $230.82 | -$42.94 | 53% 686-612 (1298) |
| └ Bruno Fernandez leg | Bruno Fernandezavg 20.5¢ | $73.84 | — | -$80.11 | |
| └ Nicolas Kicker leg | Nicolas Kickeravg 86.2¢ | $199.02 | $230.82 | +$37.17 | |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Bruno Fernandezavg 38¢ | $181.14 | — | -$181.14 | 59% 30994-21722 (52716) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100 | Nicolas Kickeravg 82.4¢ | $132.44 | $122.64 | -$9.8 | 52% 14048-12800 (26848) |
| └ Nicolas Kicker leg | Nicolas Kickeravg 82.4¢ | $101.04 | $122.64 | +$21.6 | |
| └ Bruno Fernandez leg | Bruno Fernandezavg 21.3¢ | $31.4 | — | -$31.4 | |
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100 | Bruno Fernandezavg 38¢ | $88.25 | — | -$88.25 | 51% 11450-10811 (22261) |
SU suntori | Nicolas Kickeravg 90¢ | $95.23 | $105.81 | +$10.58 | 45% 13007-15781 (28788) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Nicolas Kickeravg 71.3¢ | $86 | $86 | +$24.72 | 54% 5924-4959 (10883) |
 TRCMCTR<$100 | Bruno Fernandezavg 35¢ | $17.5 | — | -$17.5 | 55% 3984-3212 (7196) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Bruno Fernandezavg 16.8¢ | $3.61 | — | -$3.61 | 47% 10069-11208 (21277) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Nicolas Kickeravg 70¢ | $7 | $10 | +$3 | 86% 6430-1084 (7514) |
 RN1<$100 | Nicolas Kickeravg 81.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 54% 58173-50394 (108567) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Nicolas Kickeravg 81¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 19845-20180 (40025) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Bruno Fernandezavg 19¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 13858-8762 (22620) |
Invested
$5,303.89
Value
$4.0K
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
51%
4292-4124 (8416)
Both legs:
Invested
$6,135.8
Value
$8.5K
PnL
+$2.3K
Record
51%
317-303 (620)
Invested
$3,306.89
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$490.83
Record
53%
6615-5887 (12502)
Both legs:
Invested
$6,247.5
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$187
Record
53%
344-310 (654)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,497.32
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$982.68
Record
53%
337-294 (631)
Invested
$1,360
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
82%
1695-374 (2069)
Invested
$2,119.43
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$292.95
Record
60%
4167-2793 (6960)
Invested
$585.95
Value
$580.85
PnL
-$5.1
Record
44%
9922-12870 (22792)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,267.6
Value
$334.07
PnL
-$337.89
Record
47%
13102-14675 (27777)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,059.79
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$178.28
Record
51%
17649-16650 (34299)
Invested
$255.75
Value
—
PnL
-$63.34
Record
56%
1887-1461 (3348)
Invested
$432.22
Value
$230.82
PnL
-$42.94
Record
53%
686-612 (1298)
Both legs:
Invested
$181.14
Value
—
PnL
-$181.14
Record
59%
30994-21722 (52716)
Invested
$132.44
Value
$122.64
PnL
-$9.8
Record
52%
14048-12800 (26848)
Both legs:
Invested
$88.25
Value
—
PnL
-$88.25
Record
51%
11450-10811 (22261)
Invested
$95.23
Value
$105.81
PnL
+$10.58
Record
45%
13007-15781 (28788)
Invested
$86
Value
$86
PnL
+$24.72
Record
54%
5924-4959 (10883)
TRCMCTR<$100Invested
$17.5
Value
—
PnL
-$17.5
Record
55%
3984-3212 (7196)
Invested
$3.61
Value
—
PnL
-$3.61
Record
47%
10069-11208 (21277)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$7
Value
$10
PnL
+$3
Record
86%
6430-1084 (7514)
RN1<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
58173-50394 (108567)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
19845-20180 (40025)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
13858-8762 (22620)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
6512395314597884
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Venusian
Nicolas Kicker — $8.5K
CandleHammerDrums
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Limousin
ARBArbitrage — excluded
LightParadox
Nicolas Kicker — $3.5K
MrDouche
CTRBruno Fernandez — $0
thestingsnake
Nicolas Kicker — $1.8K
NotJump
ARBArbitrage — excluded
38791873984189
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Flaznorp
Nicolas Kicker — $1.1K