Consensus PnL $357K · win rate 50% (1603–1593, n=3196) · PM monthly #130 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$357.0K
Record
1603W / 1593L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 3196 settled
Batting Avg
21.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1733
Source
PM monthly #130
Trades
750
Markets
4,159
Volume
$3.6M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-01?Yes $3.3K · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (72% of 47)
- Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over $249 · now 100¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
Specialties
1,444 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 66¢- Soccer
+10 pts
side won 77% of 1426 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +8%
- NHL
+7 pts
side won 65% of 17 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +5%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 29% of 235)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 60% of 181)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 76% of 226)
- 70¢ and up: 56%(won 94% of 802)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.