Consensus PnL -$407K · win rate 48% (123–134, n=257) · was PM monthly #696 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-407.5K
Record
123W / 134L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 257 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1894
Source
PM monthly #696
Trades
38
Markets
273
Volume
$2.2M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo SonegoAdolfo Vallejo $2.7K · now 0¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Lorenzo Sonego)
Specialties
148 settled consensus markets · held side won 80% at an average entry of 50¢- Tennis
+31 pts
side won 81% of 126 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +21%
- Soccer
+23 pts
side won 73% of 22 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +16%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 73% of 15)
- 30–50¢: 32%(won 68% of 47)
- 50–70¢: 54%(won 88% of 80)
- 70¢ and up: 4%(won 83% of 6)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.