Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Lorenzo Sonego (87%) · Lorenzo Sonego at 67¢ · $88K held · ends Nov 8

Adolfo Vallejo34¢Lorenzo Sonego66¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Lorenzo Sonego

Consensus Traders

Lorenzo Sonego 87%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$87.8K

Combined PnL

-$42.9

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 66.5¢

+12% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

Research candidateLorenzo Sonego at 67%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Sonego

13 of 15 top traders (87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Adolfo Vallejo34%

Lorenzo Sonego67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lorenzo Sonego13 traders

Total Value$67.5K

Total Shares83,034

Combined PnL+$7.1K

Adolfo Vallejo2 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares38,715

Combined PnL$-7.1K

Lorenzo Sonego — 87%Adolfo Vallejo — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on Lorenzo Sonego. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLorenzo Sonego 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpLorenzo Sonego 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrLorenzo Sonego 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Lorenzo Sonego 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 61.6¢	$23.3K	$24.9K	+$1.6K	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
RN1	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 58.6¢	$17.8K	$18.8K	+$1.0K	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
0X 0xF8164A94e27CdCeD0cC975e21308fB099B2D0433-1772692168144CTR	Adolfo Vallejoavg 49.6¢	$19.0K	$11.9K	$-7.1K	38% 154-254 (408)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 63¢	$8.6K	$8.2K	-$364.68	52% 13925-12698 (26623)
└ Lorenzo Sonego leg	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 63¢	$5.4K	$6.0K	+$599.9
└ Adolfo Vallejo leg	Adolfo Vallejoavg 42.9¢	$3.2K	$2.2K	-$964.58
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 57¢	$4.7K	$7.1K	+$2.5K	54% 188-162 (350)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 55.8¢	$4.3K	$5.3K	+$1.0K	38% 505-817 (1322)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 58¢	$2.8K	$3.3K	-$71.38	73% 3600-1329 (4929)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 53¢	$2.4K	$3.1K	+$716.1	51% 1526-1478 (3004)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 51.9¢	$1.8K	$2.4K	+$398.53	48% 1064-1163 (2227)
MI MilesY	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 87¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$11.49	57% 625-462 (1087)
TH thestingsnake	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 69.4¢	$647.88	$436.16	-$78.82	60% 4102-2764 (6866)
PL pleasent242CTR	Adolfo Vallejoavg 42¢	$143.35	$149.41	+$6.06	52% 663-607 (1270)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 57¢	$74.1	$89.7	-$0.65	50% 3946-3930 (7876)
HRTrading<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 69¢	$32.84	$32.46	-$0.38	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 56.3¢	$14.26	$15.45	+$1.19	85% 5875-1000 (6875)
poshposh<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 74¢	$14.9	$14.39	-$0.5	58% 10657-7637 (18294)

UpTheBlues

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$23,343.51

Value

$24.9K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

RN1

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$17,816.77

Value

$18.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

0xF8164A94e27CdCeD0cC975e21308fB099B2D0433-1772692168144CTR

Adolfo Vallejo

Invested

$19,000

Value

$11.9K

PnL

$-7.1K

Record

38%

154-254 (408)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$8,581.53

Value

$8.2K

PnL

-$364.68

Record

52%

13925-12698 (26623)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Sonego$5,372.2963¢+$599.9

Adolfo Vallejo$3,209.2342.9¢-$964.58

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$4,749.77

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

54%

188-162 (350)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$4,289

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

38%

505-817 (1322)

JAMJAMJAM4

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$2,760.22

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$71.38

Record

73%

3600-1329 (4929)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$2,405.1

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$716.1

Record

51%

1526-1478 (3004)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$1,848.58

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$398.53

Record

48%

1064-1163 (2227)

MilesY

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$11.49

Record

57%

625-462 (1087)

thestingsnake

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$647.88

Value

$436.16

PnL

-$78.82

Record

60%

4102-2764 (6866)

pleasent242CTR

Adolfo Vallejo

Invested

$143.35

Value

$149.41

PnL

+$6.06

Record

52%

663-607 (1270)

NatoAlfista<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$74.1

Value

$89.7

PnL

-$0.65

Record

50%

3946-3930 (7876)

HRTrading<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$32.84

Value

$32.46

PnL

-$0.38

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$14.26

Value

$15.45

PnL

+$1.19

Record

85%

5875-1000 (6875)

poshposh<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$14.9

Value

$14.39

PnL

-$0.5

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

Research grade

Research candidateLorenzo Sonego at 67%

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Sonego

13 of 15 top traders (87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on Lorenzo Sonego. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLorenzo Sonego 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpLorenzo Sonego 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrLorenzo Sonego 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Lorenzo Sonego 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lorenzo Sonego wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.