Consensus PnL $30K · win rate 44% (42–53, n=95) · PM monthly #852 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$30.1K
Record
42W / 53L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 95 settled
Batting Avg
64.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1462
Source
PM monthly #852
Record (90 d)
20/39 · 51%
Trades
535
Markets
138
Volume
$473.0K
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Learner TienLearner Tien $4.5K · now 65¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (44% of 40)
Specialties
126 settled consensus markets · held side won 51% at an average entry of 54¢- Crypto
+3 pts
side won 18% of 11 · avg entry 16¢
ROI −7%
Weakest: Other Sports — held side won 49% of 53 at an average 51¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 15%(won 26% of 19)
- 30–50¢: 25%(won 32% of 31)
- 50–70¢: 37%(won 48% of 46)
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 90% of 30)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.