Consensus PnL $106K · win rate 92% (7678–700, n=8378) · PM monthly #457 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$105.7K
Record
7678W / 700L
Win Rate
92.0%
of 8378 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#203
Source
PM monthly #457
Trades
1,477
Markets
12,479
Volume
$3.7M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 4 on the consensus side (50%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ETDown $1.3K · now 0¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (44% of 30)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ETUp $5 · now 0¢ · in at 6¢with the consensus (60% of 28)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ETUp $3 · now 0¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (Down)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ETDown $1 · now 0¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (Up)
Specialties
5,121 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 88¢- Crypto
+11 pts
side won 99% of 5121 · avg entry 88¢
ROI +13%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 17% of 59)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 87% of 45)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 96% of 153)
- 70¢ and up: 95%(won 100% of 4864)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.