Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 26 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,325

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Down16 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,737

Combined PnL+$169.39

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 45¢	$1.4K	—	$-1.4K	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 57¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$42.48	55% 15793-13173 (28966)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 59.3¢	$907.06	$824.26	-$82.8	56% 14039-11169 (25208)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 55.9¢	$612.51	$653.74	+$41.23	50% 5585-5650 (11235)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 42.9¢	$540.57	—	-$540.57	56% 12755-9823 (22578)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 44.2¢	$156.61	$164.46	+$7.85	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.6¢	$70.02	$164.46	+$94.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.2¢	$86.6	—	-$86.6
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 78¢	$125.95	$142.97	+$19.62	60% 12586-8357 (20943)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$178.3	$131	-$47.3	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 58.4¢	$53.3	$87.93	+$34.63	55% 7793-6374 (14167)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 92.6¢	$78.4	$78.74	+$0.34	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 96¢	$59.4	$61.88	+$2.48	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 41¢	$40.99	$99.97	+$58.98	74% 103044-36553 (139597)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 34.7¢	$27.79	$80	+$52.21	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 43.8¢	$29.27	$40	+$10.73	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 66¢	$34.75	—	-$34.75	55% 8967-7399 (16366)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$16.5	—	-$16.5	35% 19121-36132 (55253)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 47.3¢	$14.2	—	-$14.2	56% 8353-6485 (14838)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 42¢	$10.5	$25	+$14.5	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 62.6¢	$11.55	—	-$11.55	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 31.8¢	$7.3	—	-$7.3	55% 24178-19509 (43687)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 36¢	$3.6	$10	+$6.4	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 44¢	$3.15	$7.16	+$4.01	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 55¢	$11.33	$4.99	+$8.54	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 30.2¢	$178.8	—	-$178.8	76% 9516-2949 (12465)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 38¢	$2.05	$5.39	+$3.34	65% 4332-2383 (6715)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$1,449.84

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,441.38

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$42.48

Record

55%

15793-13173 (28966)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$907.06

Value

$824.26

PnL

-$82.8

Record

56%

14039-11169 (25208)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$612.51

Value

$653.74

PnL

+$41.23

Record

50%

5585-5650 (11235)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$540.57

Value

—

PnL

-$540.57

Record

56%

12755-9823 (22578)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$156.61

Value

$164.46

PnL

+$7.85

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

Both legs:

Down$70.0242.6¢+$94.45

Up$86.644.2¢-$86.6

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$125.95

Value

$142.97

PnL

+$19.62

Record

60%

12586-8357 (20943)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$178.3

Value

$131

PnL

-$47.3

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$53.3

Value

$87.93

PnL

+$34.63

Record

55%

7793-6374 (14167)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$78.4

Value

$78.74

PnL

+$0.34

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$59.4

Value

$61.88

PnL

+$2.48

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$40.99

Value

$99.97

PnL

+$58.98

Record

74%

103044-36553 (139597)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$27.79

Value

$80

PnL

+$52.21

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$29.27

Value

$40

PnL

+$10.73

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$34.75

Value

—

PnL

-$34.75

Record

55%

8967-7399 (16366)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$16.5

Value

—

PnL

-$16.5

Record

35%

19121-36132 (55253)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$14.2

Value

—

PnL

-$14.2

Record

56%

8353-6485 (14838)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$10.5

Value

$25

PnL

+$14.5

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$11.55

Value

—

PnL

-$11.55

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

—

PnL

-$7.3

Record

55%

24178-19509 (43687)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$3.6

Value

$10

PnL

+$6.4

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$3.15

Value

$7.16

PnL

+$4.01

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$11.33

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$8.54

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$178.8

Value

—

PnL

-$178.8

Record

76%

9516-2949 (12465)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$2.05

Value

$5.39

PnL

+$3.34

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 26 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7123d769...a60087

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793575200

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.4K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.5K

+$42.48

GoodFallen

Down — $824.26

-$82.8

ply-pm0

Down — $653.74

FairValueMachine

Up — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $142.97

+$19.62

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $131

-$47.3

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $87.93

+$34.63

asdaefef

Down — $78.74

+$0.34

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