Consensus PnL $117K · win rate 49% (30026–31442, n=61468) · PM monthly #539 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$117.0K
Record
30026W / 31442L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 61468 settled
Batting Avg
61.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1825
Source
PM monthly #539
Trades
4,900
Markets
160,744
Volume
$8.2M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ETDown $24 · now 98¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ETUp $22 · now 4¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (Down)
Specialties
10,008 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 50¢- Crypto
+50 pts
side won 100% of 10008 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +47%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 26%(won 100% of 2624)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 100% of 2610)
- 50–70¢: 23%(won 100% of 2337)
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 100% of 2437)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.