Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$5.9K
$62.1
Smart Money Signal
12 of 19 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$23.74 | 74% 103028-36547 (139575) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 70.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$22.59 | 56% 14907-11713 (26620) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 70.6¢ | $819.72 | $809.37 | -$10.35 | 50% 5575-5636 (11211) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 61¢ | $335.51 | $376.7 | +$41.18 | 55% 8953-7389 (16342) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 73.5¢ | $269.17 | $291.87 | +$22.7 | 55% 7780-6363 (14143) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 76¢ | $242.07 | $271.4 | +$29.34 | 60% 12572-8347 (20919) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 56.8¢ | $140.97 | — | -$140.97 | 58% 38470-27559 (66029) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $125.73 | $127 | +$1.27 | 93% 24266-1810 (26076) |
 pspspsps5ARB<$100 | Upavg 43.5¢ | $162.13 | $110 | -$52.13 | 46% 38658-45730 (84388) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.1¢ | $76.03 | $110 | +$33.97 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.5¢ | $86.1 | — | -$86.1 | |
LI Little-big | Downavg 43.3¢ | $86.5 | $200 | +$113.5 | 35% 19111-36114 (55225) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 53.3¢ | $38.2 | $60 | +$21.8 | 55% 24166-19500 (43666) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 59.6¢ | $26.9 | $35 | +$8.1 | 55% 45979-38324 (84303) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 54.8¢ | $39.33 | $39.33 | +$21.74 | 64% 24825-13713 (38538) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.2¢ | $47.52 | — | -$47.52 | 65% 112549-59391 (171940) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 37.9¢ | $31.49 | — | -$31.49 | 49% 78487-82044 (160531) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 78.6¢ | $20 | — | -$20 | 55% 18348-14925 (33273) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 28.1¢ | $7.01 | $25 | +$17.99 | 62% 44267-27240 (71507) |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Upavg 19¢ | $7.04 | — | -$7.04 | 64% 4309-2376 (6685) |
PA Parad0XCTR<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $4.48 | — | -$4.48 | 56% 2299-1791 (4090) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3698-2861 (6559) |
BoneOhioInvested
$2,350.63
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$23.74
Record
74%
103028-36547 (139575)
Invested
$1,191.89
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$22.59
Record
56%
14907-11713 (26620)
Invested
$819.72
Value
$809.37
PnL
-$10.35
Record
50%
5575-5636 (11211)
machinelearnedInvested
$335.51
Value
$376.7
PnL
+$41.18
Record
55%
8953-7389 (16342)
Invested
$269.17
Value
$291.87
PnL
+$22.7
Record
55%
7780-6363 (14143)
Invested
$242.07
Value
$271.4
PnL
+$29.34
Record
60%
12572-8347 (20919)
Invested
$140.97
Value
—
PnL
-$140.97
Record
58%
38470-27559 (66029)
Invested
$125.73
Value
$127
PnL
+$1.27
Record
93%
24266-1810 (26076)
pspspsps5ARB<$100Invested
$162.13
Value
$110
PnL
-$52.13
Record
46%
38658-45730 (84388)
Both legs:
Invested
$86.5
Value
$200
PnL
+$113.5
Record
35%
19111-36114 (55225)
Invested
$38.2
Value
$60
PnL
+$21.8
Record
55%
24166-19500 (43666)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$26.9
Value
$35
PnL
+$8.1
Record
55%
45979-38324 (84303)
Invested
$39.33
Value
$39.33
PnL
+$21.74
Record
64%
24825-13713 (38538)
Invested
$47.52
Value
—
PnL
-$47.52
Record
65%
112549-59391 (171940)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$31.49
Value
—
PnL
-$31.49
Record
49%
78487-82044 (160531)
Invested
$20
Value
—
PnL
-$20
Record
55%
18348-14925 (33273)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$7.01
Value
$25
PnL
+$17.99
Record
62%
44267-27240 (71507)
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
$7.04
Value
—
PnL
-$7.04
Record
64%
4309-2376 (6685)
Invested
$4.48
Value
—
PnL
-$4.48
Record
56%
2299-1791 (4090)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3698-2861 (6559)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Down — $2.4K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.2K
ply-pm0
Down — $809.37
machinelearned
Down — $376.7
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $291.87
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $271.4
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $127
pspspsps5
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Little-big
Down — $200