Consensus PnL -$17K · win rate 55% (2221–1828, n=4049) · was PM monthly #953 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-16.7K
Record
2221W / 1828L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 4049 settled
Batting Avg
25.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1434
Source
PM monthly #953
Trades
437
Markets
4,269
Volume
$548.9K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ETDown $5 · now 100¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
Specialties
1,085 settled consensus markets · held side won 97% at an average entry of 59¢- Crypto
+39 pts
side won 99% of 1071 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +39%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 0% of 12 at an average 14¢ entry (−14 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 13% of 15)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 81% of 16)
- 50–70¢: 94%(won 99% of 1022)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 97% of 32)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.