Consensus PnL $35K · win rate 45% (114–138, n=252) · was PM monthly #701 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$34.6K
Record
114W / 138L
Win Rate
45.0%
of 252 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1984
Source
PM monthly #701
Trades
1,098
Markets
289
Volume
$17.6M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 3 on the consensus side (33%)- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $121K · now 11¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-01?Yes $65K · now 42¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $19K · now 23¢ · in at 23¢with the consensus (73% of 11)
Specialties
126 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 47¢- Soccer
+51 pts
side won 98% of 97 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +51%
- NBA
+54 pts
side won 100% of 26 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +52%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 100% of 12)
- 30–50¢: 35%(won 95% of 44)
- 50–70¢: 56%(won 100% of 70)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.