Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-01?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 60¢ · $168K held · ends Nov 1

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 86%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$168.0K

Combined PnL

-$873.52

Smart Money Entry

61.3¢ → 59.5¢

-3% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 60%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$103.1K

Total Shares171,062

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$46.2K

Total Shares116,980

Combined PnL+$799.24

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Siddhartha1	Noavg 61.6¢	$72.7K	$71.4K	$-1.3K	51% 59-57 (116)
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Yesavg 38.8¢	$45.0K	$45.8K	+$804.24	49% 167-175 (342)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 60.6¢	$20.1K	$19.7K	-$358.61	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
0010001000001100ARB<$100	Noavg 59¢	$6.4K	$6.5K	+$66.62	65% 1371-739 (2110)
└ No leg	Noavg 59¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$29.27
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$37.36
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 39.3¢	$5.5K	$5.6K	+$56.87	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.3¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$106.29
└ No leg	Noavg 61¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$49.42
CA CannaeARB<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$155.95	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$167.81
└ No leg	Noavg 60.8¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$11.87
HI hi774c	Noavg 60¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$30.6	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
AN Anon455	Noavg 61¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$25	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
DO DolphinBaller	Noavg 60¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$75	47% 100-113 (213)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$27.22	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$15.2
└ No leg	Noavg 61¢	$488.61	$476.59	+$12.02
VeryLucky888	Noavg 60.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$7.47	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
AY ay118	Noavg 59¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$9.73	47% 36-41 (77)
IS IsraelDJJB	Noavg 63¢	$643.81	$633.59	-$5.11	48% 63-68 (131)
P1 P1kasoCTR	Yesavg 38¢	$380	$380	-$5	63% 754-450 (1204)
0xheavy888	Noavg 60.5¢	$242	$238	-$4	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 61.9¢	$114.03	$109.66	-$4.37	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 61.4¢	$85.39	$84.1	-$1.3	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 60.7¢	$53.56	$52.51	-$1.05	56% 14240-11046 (25286)

Siddhartha1

Invested

$72,709.51

Value

$71.4K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

51%

59-57 (116)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Yes

Invested

$45,007.74

Value

$45.8K

PnL

+$804.24

Record

49%

167-175 (342)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$20,090.76

Value

$19.7K

PnL

-$358.61

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

0010001000001100ARB<$100

Invested

$6,442.09

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$66.62

Record

65%

1371-739 (2110)

Both legs:

No$3,453.6359¢+$29.27

Yes$2,988.4540¢+$37.36

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$5,508.87

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$56.87

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

Yes$3,49939.3¢+$106.29

No$2,009.8761¢-$49.42

CannaeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,761.04

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$155.95

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

Both legs:

Yes$2,483.6537¢+$167.81

No$2,277.3960.8¢-$11.87

hi774c

Invested

$3,672

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$30.6

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

Anon455

Invested

$3,050

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$25

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

DolphinBaller

Invested

$1,800

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$75

Record

47%

100-113 (213)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,704.61

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$27.22

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

Both legs:

Yes$1,21640¢+$15.2

No$488.6161¢+$12.02

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,247.32

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$7.47

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

ay118

Invested

$1,147.92

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$9.73

Record

47%

36-41 (77)

IsraelDJJB

Invested

$643.81

Value

$633.59

PnL

-$5.11

Record

48%

63-68 (131)

P1kasoCTR

Yes

Invested

$380

Value

$380

PnL

-$5

Record

63%

754-450 (1204)

0xheavy888

Invested

$242

Value

$238

PnL

-$4

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$114.03

Value

$109.66

PnL

-$4.37

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$85.39

Value

$84.1

PnL

-$1.3

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$53.56

Value

$52.51

PnL

-$1.05

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 60%

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.