Consensus PnL $68K · win rate 20% (1–4, n=5) · PM monthly #529 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$68.2K
Record
1W / 4L
Win Rate
20.0%
of 5 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2237
Source
PM monthly #529
Trades
66
Markets
8
Volume
$146.4K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes $65K · now 68¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (42% of 45)
- Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes $11K · now 65¢ · in at 68¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
5 settled consensus markets · held side won 0% at an average entry of 16¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where Rafifa's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 80%(won 0% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 0% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.