Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?

18 of 42 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 68¢ · $146K held · ends Nov 4

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$146.4K

Combined PnL

$4.6K

Smart Money Entry

66.2¢ → 68.3¢

+3% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 42 top traders (43%)24 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes18 traders

Total Value$109.7K

Total Shares164,704

Combined PnL+$3.9K

No24 traders

Total Value$36.7K

Total Shares116,496

Combined PnL+$770.17

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 57% · 14

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 10

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 62% · 21

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 69% · 13

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 33

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Rafifa	Yesavg 64.1¢	$62.8K	$65.3K	+$4.1K	— 2-4 (6)
AN AnonymousUsername	Yesavg 68.3¢	$14.7K	$17.4K	-$79.06	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
WA wan123CTR	Noavg 26.8¢	$12.1K	$14.3K	+$2.2K	39% 196-304 (500)
ME Melody626	Yesavg 66.6¢	$7.6K	$7.6K	+$198.79	58% 705-521 (1226)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Noavg 36.1¢	$8.6K	$7.5K	$-1.1K	35% 35-64 (99)
VI Vilgefortz	Yesavg 71.1¢	$7.7K	$7.3K	-$298.25	71% 196-82 (278)
TR troimCTR	Noavg 35.6¢	$5.0K	$4.4K	-$552.68	36% 397-691 (1088)
ImJustKen	Yesavg 86.2¢	$4.9K	$3.8K	$-1.0K	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
HE HerrieDavis	Yesavg 60.5¢	$3.1K	$3.4K	+$366.33	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
DI Dimpled-Foal	Yesavg 61.4¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$234.17	54% 229-195 (424)
CO cocococococoCTR	Noavg 33.4¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$130.11	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
StarMaster	Yesavg 69.5¢	$831.24	$1.3K	+$500.79	53% 1857-1640 (3497)
PA pantomimeCTR	Noavg 35.6¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$159.46	52% 1287-1198 (2485)
mrworldwideCTR	Noavg 34.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$95.99	69% 804-359 (1163)
ZaratustraCTR	Noavg 31.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$19.25	62% 351-214 (565)
0X 0x498d2...CTR	Noavg 32.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$27.19	— 7-3 (10)
WongKimArkCTR	Noavg 13.6¢	$408	$942	+$559.5	63% 217-127 (344)
BA balerinacapuchinaCTR	Noavg 36.8¢	$1.1K	$942	-$133.5	72% 176-70 (246)
Seutervoinen	Yesavg 78.2¢	$903.44	$769.11	-$122.22	85% 311-57 (368)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Noavg 27¢	$126.86	$722.2	+$107.08	73% 3600-1329 (4929)
BiDiFakePollsCTR	Noavg 37.8¢	$436.48	$364.89	-$71.59	58% 182-132 (314)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Noavg 34.4¢	$388.25	$355.6	-$32.65	38% 20-32 (52)
StupidMonkeyyy	Yesavg 67.2¢	$325.25	$322.35	+$2.66	50% 146-145 (291)
Tenebrus7CTR	Noavg 36¢	$359.5	$314	-$36	73% 2952-1072 (4024)
probabilityCTR	Noavg 17.2¢	$114.35	$199.03	+$84.68	42% 1368-1924 (3292)

Rafifa

Yes

Invested

$62,849.21

Value

$65.3K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

—

2-4 (6)

AnonymousUsername

Yes

Invested

$14,669.36

Value

$17.4K

PnL

-$79.06

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

wan123CTR

Invested

$12,138.88

Value

$14.3K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

Melody626

Yes

Invested

$7,571.09

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$198.79

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

dromedaryyCTR

Invested

$8,557.81

Value

$7.5K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

Vilgefortz

Yes

Invested

$7,748.5

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$298.25

Record

71%

196-82 (278)

troimCTR

Invested

$4,983.93

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$552.68

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

ImJustKen

Yes

Invested

$4,872.95

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

HerrieDavis

Yes

Invested

$3,126.58

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$366.33

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

Dimpled-Foal

Yes

Invested

$2,082.95

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$234.17

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

cocococococoCTR

Invested

$1,893.23

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$130.11

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$831.24

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$500.79

Record

53%

1857-1640 (3497)

pantomimeCTR

Invested

$1,434.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$159.46

Record

52%

1287-1198 (2485)

mrworldwideCTR

Invested

$1,207.94

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$95.99

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

ZaratustraCTR

Invested

$1,088.5

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$19.25

Record

62%

351-214 (565)

0x498d2...CTR

Invested

$1,147.02

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$27.19

Record

—

7-3 (10)

WongKimArkCTR

Invested

$408

Value

$942

PnL

+$559.5

Record

63%

217-127 (344)

balerinacapuchinaCTR

Invested

$1,104

Value

$942

PnL

-$133.5

Record

72%

176-70 (246)

Seutervoinen

Yes

Invested

$903.44

Value

$769.11

PnL

-$122.22

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Invested

$126.86

Value

$722.2

PnL

+$107.08

Record

73%

3600-1329 (4929)

BiDiFakePollsCTR

Invested

$436.48

Value

$364.89

PnL

-$71.59

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Invested

$388.25

Value

$355.6

PnL

-$32.65

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

StupidMonkeyyy

Yes

Invested

$325.25

Value

$322.35

PnL

+$2.66

Record

50%

146-145 (291)

Tenebrus7CTR

Invested

$359.5

Value

$314

PnL

-$36

Record

73%

2952-1072 (4024)

probabilityCTR

Invested

$114.35

Value

$199.03

PnL

+$84.68

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 42 top traders (43%)24 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 57% · 14

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 10

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 62% · 21

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 69% · 13

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 33

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.2%

68.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.